Seasonal Climate Outlook
Issued: 07 July 2014
SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK
July – December 2014
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral-conditions have prevailed, followed by a shift towards warming condition at the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (CEEP). Since May, an El Niño Watch has been declared by PAGASA, consistent with increasingly above average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and significant weakening of the low-level trade winds across the CEEP.
Most dynamical and statistical models favor El Niño to develop during the remaining portions of 2014.
July to September
The period is the peak of the Southwest (SW) monsoon season, locally known as “Habagat” and tropical cyclone activity is likewise at its maximum. During the period, rain-causing weather systems such as thunderstorms, tropical cyclones and inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) will dominate the season bringing heavy rainfall and strong winds. Eight (8) to ten (10) tropical cyclones are likely to develop/enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Tropical cyclone tracks move north of Philippines, generally in westward and northwestward direction. Monsoon breaks are likely to occur during the period.
During July and August, rainfall condition is forecast to be near to above normal in most parts of the country. Patches of below normal rainfall is expected over Ilocos Norte, La Union, Camarines Norte, Cebu, Biliran, Leyte, Zamboanga Peninsula, Surigao del Norte, Basilan and Sulu. Likewise, below to near normal rainfall may be experienced during September. Gradual recession of rains, associated with the SW monsoon, is expected during the latter part of September up to early October.
October to December
A weak to moderate El Niño condition may fully develop during the season. The period covers the first half of the Northeast (NE) monsoon and the weather systems likely to influence the country are the tail end of the cold front, ITCZ, easterly wave, ridge of high pressure area (HPA), the easterlies and about five (5) to seven (7) tropical cyclone occurrences. Tropical cyclones tend to move on a westerly track between Visayas and Central Luzon with secondary tracks over Northern Mindanao during the season.
For the month of October and November, generally below normal rainfall conditions are likely in most areas of Luzon and Visayas, while near normal rainfall conditions will be expected over Cagayan, Camarines Norte, Albay, Eastern and Central Visayas and most areas of Mindanao. Moreover, way below to below normal is probable over the country during December, except for Leyte, Northeastern Mindanao and Sarangani, which may receive near normal rainfall conditions.
PAGASA will continue to closely monitor these climate conditions and regular updates and advisories shall be issued as appropriate. Concerned agencies are advised to take precautionary measures to mitigate the potential adverse impacts of El Niño. For further information, please contact the Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD) at telephone numbers 434-0955 or 435-1675.
VICENTE B. MALANO, PhD.
Notes: Seasonal Outlook was based from forecasts made in July 2014. Monthly updates are being made (please refer to Monthly Weather Situation and Outlook issued monthly. Available at this link: http://web.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/climate-agromet/climate-prediction/monthly-weather-situation).