Gale Warning
Issued at: 5:00 PM TODAY , 19 February 2017
Gale Warning # 3 (Final)
For: strong to gale force winds associated with the northeast monsoon.

Gale Warning in PDF file



Weather Advisory
As of today, there is no Weather Advisory issued.
TODAY: 2017-02-20 03:51:22
EXPIRE:2017-02-18 10:56:58



Dams Water Level Update
As of 6 AM, 20 February  2017

General Flood Advisories - Regional
Issued 20 February 2017


Daily Basin Hydrological Forecast
Issued 20 February 2017




Monthly Climate Assessment and Outlook

La Niña-like conditions continue
Issued: 06 February 2017
updates shall be issued as appropriate.

Monthly Rainfall Forecast
RAINFALL FORECAST  (February - July 2017) 
UPDATED: 18 January 2017 


Regional Rainfall Forecast
Issued: 18 January 2017
Valid for: February - July 2017
Farm Weather Forecast and Advisories
ISSUED              : 8AM, MONDAY, FEBRUARY 20, 2017
VALID UNTIL      :  8AM, TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 21, 2017
FWFA:  N0. 17-051


Ten-Day Regional Agri-Weather Information

DECADE NO. 5  FEBRUARY 11- 20, 2017

PHILIPPINE AGRI-WEATHER FORECAST

The weather systems that will affect the country are northeast monsoon, tail-end of a cold front, and low pressure area (LPA).

During the early days of the forecast period, the regions of Eastern Visayas, CARAGA and Davao will experience rains and isolated thunderstorms while the regions of Ilocos, Cordillera, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon and Bicol will have light rains. The LPA is expected to bring rains and isolated thunderstorms over Mindanao, Visayas and MIMAROPA at the midst of the decadal period. After that, the provinces of Aurora, Laguna and Quezon, and the regions of Cagayan Valley, Bicol, Eastern Visayas and CARAGA will experience rains and thunderstorms. The rest of Luzon will have light rains while the rest of the country will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rains.

Moderate to strong northeasterly winds will blow over the whole country during the first half of the ten-day period. Afterwards, Luzon will gradually have moderate to strong winds coming from northeast to east while the rest of the country will have light to moderate winds coming from the east.

The seaboards of the whole country will be moderate to rough during the first half of the forecast period. After that, the coastal waters over Luzon will be moderate to rough while the rest of the country will have slight to moderate seas.

The eastern and central equatorial Pacific is in neutral condition.


Seasonal Climate Outlook
Issued:  20 January 2017
FOR January - June 2017
PDF 




Astronomical Diary
Issued 01 February 2017
National Astronomy Week (NAW), Famous Equilateral triangle in the sky and Annular Solar Eclipse (not visible in the Philippines)...




   PAGASA webmail  Learning Tools  Bidding 

  Training Activities  Vacancy  Research-and-Development

  Engineering  faqupdate  Publications 

 Impact Assessment for Agriculture full document


     The Impact Assessment and Applications Section (IAAS) of Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD) regularly issue this monthly/bulletin which will provide users such as food security managers, economic policy makers, agricultural statisticians and agricultural extension officials with qualitative information on the current and potential effects of climate and weather variability on rainfed crops, particularly rice and corn. This bulletin, entitled “Climate Impact Assessment for Agriculture in the Philippines”, represents a method for converting meteorological data into economic information that can be used as supplement to information from other available sources.

    For example, an agricultural statistician or economist involved in crop production and yield forecast problems can combine the assessment with analysis from area survey results, reports on the occurrence of pests and diseases, farmers’ reports and other data sources.

  The impact assessments are based on agroclimatic indices derived from historical rainfall data recorded for the period 1951 to the present. The indices, expressed in raw values percent of normals and percentile ranks, together with real time meteorological data (monthly rainfall, in percent of normal), percent of normal cumulative rainfall, as well as the occurrence of significant event such as typhoons, floods and droughts are the tools used in the assessment of crop performance. Crop reports from PAGASA field stations are also helpful.

The narrative impact assessment included in the bulletin depicts the regional performance of upland, 1st lowland and 2nd lowland palay; and dry and wet season corn crops, depending on the period or the season. Tabulated values of normal rainfall and generalized monsoon and yield moisture indices are provided for ready reference. Spatial analysis of rainfall, percent of normal rainfall and the generalized monsoon indices in percentile ranks are also presented on maps to help users visualize any unusual weather occurring during the period. The generalized monsoon indices in particular, are drought indicators; hence, the tables (see Appendices) together with the threshold values can be used in assessing drought impact, if there are any. It also helps assess any probable crop failure.

It is hoped therefore that this bulletin would help provide the decision-makers, planners and economist with timely and reliable early warning/information on climatic impact including the potential for subsistence food shortfalls, thereby enabling them to plan alternate cropping, if possible, food assistance strategies/mitigation measures to reduce the adverse impact of climate and eventually improve disaster preparedness.

     Impact assessment for other principal crops such as sugarcane and coconut, for energy and for water resources management, are from time to time will be included in the forthcoming issues of this bulletin.

  The IAAS of CAD will appreciate suggestions/comments from end-users and interested parties for the improvement of this bulletin.

Definition of Terms

The Generalized Monsoon Index (GMI) helps determine the performance of the rains during the season and serves as a good indicator of potential irrigation supplies. It is a tool used to assess rainfed crops.

The GMI for the southwest monsoon (GMIsw) in an area during June to September is defined as follows:
GMIsw = W6P6 + W7P7 + W8P8 + W9P9

The GMI for the northeast monsoon (GMIne) in an area during October to January is defined as:
GMIne = W10P10 + W11P11 + W12P12 + W1P1
where:
W = weight coefficient of monthly rainfall for the season;
P = rainfall amount in the ith month
(i = 1 for January, 2 = for February, etc.)

The Yield Moisture Index (YMI) is a simple index that helps the users assess agroclimatic crop conditions during the crop season. The YMI for a particular crop is defined as follows:
n YMI =  [Pi Ki] i
where:
i = crop stage (1 = planting/transplanting,
2 = vegetative, 3 = flowering, 4 = maturity, etc.)
n = total no. of crop stages;
P = rainfall during the ith crop stage; and
K = appropriate crop coefficient for the ith crop stage.
Tentatively, the threshold values of categories of indices for interpretation being adopted for both YMI and GMI are as follows:

Percentile
Rank
Interpretation
> 80 Potential for flood damage
41 - 80 Near normal to above-normal crop condition
21 - 40 Moderate drought impact with reduced yield
11 - 20 Drought impact with major yield losses
< 10 Severe drought impact with crop failure and potential food shortages

 
 

AGROCLIMATIC / CROP CONDITION ASSESSMENT

FOR JANUARY 2017

OVERVIEW
     
In some parts of the country, harvesting of early planted dry season corn has just begun; good to normal yield is expected in Cagayan Valley, Romblon, and Cebu because of sufficient moisture experienced by the crops during their critical stage of growth. In contrast, below normal yield is anticipated in some parts of CALABARZON, Masbate, Bukidnon and CARAGa due to water logging experienced by the crops over those areas, and the moisture stress experienced by the crops in Calapan and Dumaguete. Standing lowland 2nd palay and dry season corn are in good condition, particularly in Cagayan valley, most parts of CALABARZON, Romblon, Bicol Region, Panay Island, Eastern Visayas, Zamboanga del Norte and  Northern Mindanao. However, insufficient moisture that potentially stressed rice and corn crops were noted in Calapan and Dumaguete. The remaining parts of the country have experienced dry spell.

Analyses of rainfall for the month of January showed that most parts of the country received near to above normal rainfall, except over the provinces of Abra, Batanes and most areas of Ilocos region, which experienced way below to below normal rainfall conditions.  Flooding/flashfloods incidences were reported in many areas of Cagayan de Oro, Bukidnon, Lanao del Sur, Cebu City, Butuan City and CARAGA region due to continuous heavy rains brought about by the low pressure areas (LPAs) and tail-end of a cold front (TECF).

The weather systems that affected the country during the month were the northeast monsoon, TECF, LPAs, easterlies, ridge of high pressure areas, and the passage of Tropical Depression (TD) “Auring” (January 7–8). TD “Auring” developed inside the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) and made landfall over Surigao del Norte.

REGION I (Ilocos Region)

 Any farming activities will not be possible in any part of the region due to very low rainfall received during the month.

CAR (Cordillera Autonomous Region)

 Although the rainfall received during the month is above normal, available moisture is still insufficient for planting of rice and corn across the region.

REGION II ( Cagayan Valley)

Harvesting of early planted dry season corn has now started all over the region. Good to normal yield is expected this season due to good crop conditions experienced by the crops during their critical stage of growth and development.

Standing dry season corn, now vegetating, and newly planted lowland palay experienced favorable crop conditions. 

REGION III (Central Luzon)

In the eastern part of the region, standing newly planted lowland 2nd palay and the vegetating lowland 2nd palay and dry season corn were benefited by sufficient moisture available during the month. On the contrary, any farming activities may not have been possibly undertaken in central and western parts of the region because of very low rainfall received.

REGION IV-A (CALABARZON)

Harvesting of early planted dry season corn has just begun. Below normal yield might be expected because the crops experienced stormy weather during their critical stage of growth. Meanwhile, sufficient moisture available during the month favors standing newly planted lowland 2nd palay, as well as the vegetating lowland 2nd palay and dry season corn in most parts of the region.

REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA)

Harvesting of early planted dry season corn has now started in Calapan and Romblon; good to normal yield is expected in Romblon, while below normal yield is anticipated in Calapan because the crops experienced moisture stress during their critical stage of growth.

Meanwhile, adequate moisture available during the month favored standing newly planted lowland 2nd palay and the vegetating dry season corn and lowland 2nd palay in those particular areas.

REGION V  (Bicol Region)  

Below normal yield is expected for the harvestable early planted dry season corn because of strong winds and water logging experienced by the crops when typhoon “Nina” crossed the region while they are in their critical stage of growth and development. 

Meanwhile, the vegetating lowland 2nd palay planted in November may rehabilitate because of sufficient moisture available during the month. Also, the newly planted lowland palay as well as vegetating dry season corn continued to experience good crop conditions.

REGION VI (Western Visayas) 

The adequate moisture available during the month favors harvestable early planted dry season corn; good yield is anticipated. Similarly, standing newly planted lowland 2nd palay and the vegetating dry season corn experienced experienced good crop conditions.

REGION VII (Central Visayas)

Sufficient amount of rainfall received during the month favors the harvestable early planted dry-season corn in most parts of the region. Yield is expected to be good except in Dumaguete, because the crops experienced moisture stress during their critical stage of growth.  Meanwhile, standing newly planted lowland palay and the vegetating dry season corn are faring well.

REGION VIII (Eastern Visayas)

Standing newly planted lowland 2nd palay and the vegetating dry season corn, as well as lowland 2nd palay planted in November, continued to experience good crop conditions across the region because of sufficient moisture available during the month.   

REGION IX (Zamboanga Peninsula)

In Dipolog, sufficient moisture available during the month benefited standing newly planted lowland 2nd palay and dry season corn. Contrastingly, no farming activities related to rice and corn might be possible in Zamboanga del Sur because of below rainfall received during the month

REGION  X (Northern Mindanao)

Harvesting of early planted dry season corn is now in progress, yield may be lessen because crops experienced water logging during the passage of low pressure and tail-end of cold front.  Meanwhile, standing newly planted lowland 2nd palay and vegetating dry season corn are benefited by adequate moisture available during the month. It may also rehabilitate the flowering November planted lowland 2nd palay.

REGION XI (Davao Region)

The rainfall received during the month is favorable for any farming activities to be done.

REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)

Inadequate moisture available during the month hampered any farming activities to be done.

REGION XIII (CARAGA Region)

Excessive amount of rainfall received during the month slightly affect the newly planted lowland 2nd palay but moderately damaged by water logging  the vegetating dry season corn, as well as lowland 2nd palay planted in November across the region.

ARMM ((Autonomous Region of Muslim  Mindanao)

Any farming activities related to planting rice and corn may not be possible in any part of the region due to insufficient rainfall received during the month



THELMA A. CINCO

Impact Assessment and Applications Section (IAAS)
Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD)
PAGASA-DOST
Telefax No.: 434-58-82

 


payong pagasa on android The latest version of the official PAGASA app can now be downloaded on Google play store

Ceremonial Turn-over of JICA funded
Aparri and Guiuan Radar Stations
PAGASA Weather and Flood Forecasting Center (WFFC)
Agham Road, Diliman, Quezon City
03 February 2017

Read more ...

Weather Division is now  ISO 9001:2008 Certified
Proof has been furnished by means of an audit that the requirements of ISO 9001:2008 are met.

Read more ...