transparency-sealcitizensCharter

Gale Warning
Issued at: 05:00 AM TODAY , 24 January 2017
Gale Warning # 19
For: STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURGE OF THE NORTHEAST MONSOON.

Gale Warning in PDF file



Weather Advisory
As of today,there is no Weather Advisory issued.


Dams Water Level Update
As of 6 AM, 24 January  2017

General Flood Advisories - Regional
Issued 24 January 2017


Daily Basin Hydrological Forecast
Issued 23 January 2017




Monthly Climate Assessment and Outlook

La Niña-like conditions continue
Issued: 05 January 2017
updates shall be issued as appropriate.

Monthly Rainfall Forecast
RAINFALL FORECAST  (February - July 2017) 
UPDATED: 18 January 2017 


Regional Rainfall Forecast
Issued: 18 January 2017
Valid for: February - July 2017
Farm Weather Forecast and Advisories
ISSUED              : 8AM, TUESDAY, JANUARY 24,2017
VALID UNTIL      :  8AM, WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 25,2017
FWFA:  N0. 17-024


Ten-Day Regional Agri-Weather Information

DECADE NO. 3  JANUARY 21- 31, 2017

PHILIPPINE AGRI-WEATHER FORECAST

TThe weather systems that will affect the country are northeast monsoon, tail-end of a cold front, and low pressure area (LPA).

During the early days of the forecast period, Visayas, Mindanao, Bicol Region, and the provinces of Aurora, Quezon and Palawan will have cloudy skies with rains and thunderstorms.  Afterwards, Bicol Region and the eastern portion of Visayas and Mindanao will experience cloudy skies with rains or thunderstorms while the northern portion of Luzon will have light rains. The LPA will bring cloudiness with rains or thunderstorms over Bicol Region, Visayas and Mindanao at the latter part of the ten-day period. The rest of the country will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rains or thunderstorms.

Moderate to strong northeasterly winds will prevail over the whole country with moderate to rough seas.

The eastern and central equatorial Pacific is in neutral condition.


Seasonal Climate Outlook
Issued:  15 July 2016
FOR JULY TO DECEMBER 2016
PDF 




Astronomical Diary
Issued 01 January 2017
Planet Conjuction, Famous Equilateral triangle in the sky and Annual Quadrantid meteor shower...




   PAGASA webmail  Learning Tools  Bidding 

  Training Activities  Vacancy  Research-and-Development

  Engineering  faqupdate  Publications 

 Impact Assessment for Agriculture full document


     The Impact Assessment and Applications Section (IAAS) of Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD) regularly issue this monthly/bulletin which will provide users such as food security managers, economic policy makers, agricultural statisticians and agricultural extension officials with qualitative information on the current and potential effects of climate and weather variability on rainfed crops, particularly rice and corn. This bulletin, entitled “Climate Impact Assessment for Agriculture in the Philippines”, represents a method for converting meteorological data into economic information that can be used as supplement to information from other available sources.

    For example, an agricultural statistician or economist involved in crop production and yield forecast problems can combine the assessment with analysis from area survey results, reports on the occurrence of pests and diseases, farmers’ reports and other data sources.

  The impact assessments are based on agroclimatic indices derived from historical rainfall data recorded for the period 1951 to the present. The indices, expressed in raw values percent of normals and percentile ranks, together with real time meteorological data (monthly rainfall, in percent of normal), percent of normal cumulative rainfall, as well as the occurrence of significant event such as typhoons, floods and droughts are the tools used in the assessment of crop performance. Crop reports from PAGASA field stations are also helpful.

The narrative impact assessment included in the bulletin depicts the regional performance of upland, 1st lowland and 2nd lowland palay; and dry and wet season corn crops, depending on the period or the season. Tabulated values of normal rainfall and generalized monsoon and yield moisture indices are provided for ready reference. Spatial analysis of rainfall, percent of normal rainfall and the generalized monsoon indices in percentile ranks are also presented on maps to help users visualize any unusual weather occurring during the period. The generalized monsoon indices in particular, are drought indicators; hence, the tables (see Appendices) together with the threshold values can be used in assessing drought impact, if there are any. It also helps assess any probable crop failure.

It is hoped therefore that this bulletin would help provide the decision-makers, planners and economist with timely and reliable early warning/information on climatic impact including the potential for subsistence food shortfalls, thereby enabling them to plan alternate cropping, if possible, food assistance strategies/mitigation measures to reduce the adverse impact of climate and eventually improve disaster preparedness.

     Impact assessment for other principal crops such as sugarcane and coconut, for energy and for water resources management, are from time to time will be included in the forthcoming issues of this bulletin.

  The IAAS of CAD will appreciate suggestions/comments from end-users and interested parties for the improvement of this bulletin.

Definition of Terms

The Generalized Monsoon Index (GMI) helps determine the performance of the rains during the season and serves as a good indicator of potential irrigation supplies. It is a tool used to assess rainfed crops.

The GMI for the southwest monsoon (GMIsw) in an area during June to September is defined as follows:
GMIsw = W6P6 + W7P7 + W8P8 + W9P9

The GMI for the northeast monsoon (GMIne) in an area during October to January is defined as:
GMIne = W10P10 + W11P11 + W12P12 + W1P1
where:
W = weight coefficient of monthly rainfall for the season;
P = rainfall amount in the ith month
(i = 1 for January, 2 = for February, etc.)

The Yield Moisture Index (YMI) is a simple index that helps the users assess agroclimatic crop conditions during the crop season. The YMI for a particular crop is defined as follows:
n YMI =  [Pi Ki] i
where:
i = crop stage (1 = planting/transplanting,
2 = vegetative, 3 = flowering, 4 = maturity, etc.)
n = total no. of crop stages;
P = rainfall during the ith crop stage; and
K = appropriate crop coefficient for the ith crop stage.
Tentatively, the threshold values of categories of indices for interpretation being adopted for both YMI and GMI are as follows:

Percentile
Rank
Interpretation
> 80 Potential for flood damage
41 - 80 Near normal to above-normal crop condition
21 - 40 Moderate drought impact with reduced yield
11 - 20 Drought impact with major yield losses
< 10 Severe drought impact with crop failure and potential food shortages

 
 

AGROCLIMATIC / CROP CONDITION ASSESSMENT

FOR DECEMBER 2016

OVERVIEW
     
Land preparation, planting and transplanting activities for the late-planted, lowland 2nd palay, as well as  dry-season corn, has now started in Cagayan Valley, eastern part of Central Luzon, CALABARZON, Calapan and Romblon, Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas, Panay Island, Bohol and Cebu, Dipolog, Northern Mindanao, and CARAGA.  Those areas received sufficient amount of rainfall needed for planting rice and corn crops. In contrast, any planting activities may be hampered in CAR, Ilocos Region, western and central part of Central Luzon, most part of MIMAROPA, Dumaguete, Zamboanga del sur, Davao region, SOCCSKSARGEN, and ARMM because of inadequate moisture available during the month.

 Rainfall assessment for the month of December showed that near- to above-normal rainfall conditions were experienced in most parts of the country, with some patches of below-normal rainfall over Nueva Ecija, Leyte, Sultan Kudarat, Agusan del Norte and Maguindanao.

The weather systems that affected the country during the month were the converging northeast (NE) monsoon, tail-end of the cold front, low pressure areas (LPAs), easterlies and the passage of typhoon (TY) “Nina” (Dec 22-27). TY Nina made eight (8) landfalls that brought strong winds and excessive rains in MIMAROPA, CALABARZON and Bicol region.  Estimated damages to infrastructures amounting to 83 million pesos (mostly roads and river-control facilities) were reported in the provinces of Marinduque and Oriental Mindoro, as stated in the NDRRMC Situation Report No. 7.

REGION I (Ilocos Region)

Due to very low rainfall received during the month, farming activities may not  be possible.

CAR (Cordillera Autonomous Region)

Farming activities related to planting rice and corn are not possible across the region due to insufficient moisture received during the month.

REGION II ( Cagayan Valley)

Sufficient moisture available during the month favors land preparation, transplanting and planting of delay planted lowland palay, as well as dry-season corn, across the region. 

Similarly, standing early-planted, dry-season corn, now vegetating, experienced good crop conditions. 

 REGION III (Central Luzon)

In the eastern part of the region, land preparation, planting and transplanting activities for delay-planted lowland 2nd palay and dry season corn has just begun; sufficient rainfall is available in those areas. Standing newly planted lowland 2nd palay is faring well.

On the other hand, all planting activities are hampered in the western and central part of the region due to very low rainfall received during the month.      

REGION IV-A (CALABARZON)

 Land preparation, planting and transplanting activities for delay-planted, lowland 2nd palay as well as dry-season corn has started all over the region, it is favored by sufficient rainfall available during the month.

Meanwhile, standing newly-planted, lowland 2nd palay and early-planted, dry-season corn were slightly affected by the passage of TY Nina. However, the typhoon damaged agricultural products including bananas and the like. It affects the provinces of Laguna, Quezon and Batangas.

REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA)

Adequate moisture available during the month favored land preparation, planting and transplanting activities for the delay-planted, lowland 2nd palay and dry-season corn, particularly in Romblon and Calapan, while in other parts of the region, any farming activities are all hampered because of insufficient moisture.

Standing newly-planted  lowland 2nd palay and the   vegetating dry season corn were potentially damage due to the passage of Typhoon Nina.  

REGION V  (Bicol Region)  

Land preparation, planting and transplanting activities for the delay-planted, lowland 2nd palay and dry-season corn has just begun across the region; sufficient amount of rainfall received during the month favored such activities.

Meanwhile, standing rice and corn crops in the region  are rather affected by strong winds and water logging brought by the passage of TY Nina.

REGION VI (Western Visayas) 

Adequate moisture available during the month favors land preparation, planting and transplanting activities for the delay-planted, lowland 2nd palay, as well as dry season corn, across the region.  Likewise, standing newly-planted, lowland 2nd palay and the vegetating early-planted dry season palay experienced good crop conditions.

REGION VII (Central Visayas)

In most parts of the region, sufficient amount of rainfall received during the month is favorable for land preparation, planting, and transplanting activities for the delay-planted, lowland 2nd palay including dry-season corn.  Standing early-planted, dry-season corn, now vegetating, experienced good crop conditions except in Dumaguete.

REGION VIII (Eastern Visayas)

Land preparation, planting and transplanting activities for the delay-planted, lowland 2nd palay and dry-season corn in eastern Visayas is now in progress. These activities are possible due to sufficient moisture available during the month.  Standing, newly-planted, lowland 2nd palay shows good crop conditions.

REGION IX (Zamboanga Peninsula)

In Dipolog, sufficient moisture available during the month favors land preparation, planting and transplanting activities for the delay-planted, lowland, 2nd palay and dry-season corn.

Meanwhile, below-normal rainfall received during the month hampered activities related to planting rice and corn in Zamboanga del sur.

REGION  X (Northern Mindanao)

Land preparation, planting and transplanting activities for the delay-planted, lowland, 2nd palay dry-season corn is now in progress; sufficient moisture available during the month favored the same. Similarly, standing, early-planted, dry-season corn in Bukidnon is faring well.

REGION XI (Davao Region)

Above-normal rainfall received during the month are still inadequate for farming activities.  Planting of either rice or corn in any part of the region is hampered.

REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)

Inadequate moisture available during the month hampered farming activities.

REGION XIII (CARAGA Region)

Sufficient rainfall received during the month favored land preparation, planting and transplanting activities for the delay-planted, lowland, 2nd palay as well as dry season corn across the area. 

ARMM ((Autonomous Region of Muslim  Mindanao)

Lack of rainfall received across the region hampered any farming activities related to planting rice and corn.





THELMA A. CINCO
Impact Assessment and Applications Section (IAAS)
Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD)
PAGASA-DOST
Telefax No.: 434-58-82

 


payong pagasa on android The latest version of the official PAGASA app can now be downloaded on Google play store

Weather Division is now  ISO 9001:2008 Certified
Proof has been furnished by means of an audit that the requirements of ISO 9001:2008 are met.

Read more ...