Monthly Climate Assessment and Outlook / La Niña Watch               
in pdf




 
Assessment in August 2016

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions continue to prevail over the tropical Pacific. Most climate models suggest either cool ENSO-neutral or weak La Niña for the remainder of the year. Meanwhile, La Niña Watch is still in effect.

The weather systems that affected the country during the month were the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ), enhanced southwest (SW) monsoon, low pressure areas (LPAs), monsoon trough and the passage of one (1) tropical cyclone (TC) named Typhoon (TY) “Dindo” (August 24-27). TY “Dindo” did not make landfall but enhanced the SW monsoon. These weather systems brought moderate to heavy rains in the western section of the country, including Metro Manila, which caused flooding and landslides over Regions III, IV-A, IV- B, VI, National Capital Region (NCR) and Negros Island Region (NIR) based on the report of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC).  

Moreover, several tornado occurrences caused by severe thunderstorms had occurred in Metro Manila, Bulacan and Iloilo. Damage to properties and infrastructures were noted in highly populated areas of Manila, as attested from the reports of some PAGASA personnel who personally saw and noted the incident. 

General assessment of rainfall for the month of August show that near to above normal rainfall conditions were experienced in most parts of western, central and southern Luzon, NCR, Masbate, Antique, Guimaras, Iloilo, NIR, Southern Leyte, Zamboanga Peninsula, northern Mindanao, Sultan Kudarat and Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao. The rest of the country experienced below to way below normal rainfall conditions. 

On the average, most parts of the country experienced slightly warmer than average surface air temperatures. Ranges of mean temperature were as follows; mountainous areas of Luzon: 16°C - 21°C; rest of Luzon: 27°C- 33°C; Visayas: 27°C - 34°C; mountainous areas of Mindanao: 19°C - 29°C; and, rest of Mindanao: 26°C - 34°C. 


Outlook in September 2016

Weather systems that are likely to affect the country during the month are the SW monsoon, severe thunderstorms, ITCZ, LPAs, ridge of high pressure areas (HPAs), monsoon trough and two (2) to four (4) tropical cyclones that may enter/develop in the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). 

Rainfall forecast for the month show that most parts of the country will likely to experience near to above normal rainfall conditions.

In general, slightly warmer than average air temperatures are expected in most parts of the country during the month.  Predicted ranges of temperature are as follows: 15°C to 27oC over the mountainous areas of Luzon, 21°C to 38oC for the rest of Luzon, 20°C to 37oC over the Visayas, 15°C to 34oC over the mountainous areas of Mindanao, and 21°C to 38oC over rest of Mindanao.  

PAGASA will continue to closely monitor the likelihood of La Niña and updates shall be issued as appropriate. Meanwhile, concerned agencies are already advised to take precautionary actions to mitigate the adverse impacts of this phenomenon. For further information, please contact the Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD) at telephone numbers 434- 0955 or 435- 1675.



VICENTE B. MALANO, Ph.D.
Administrator I

A1.jpg

A2.jpg


previous advisory issuances:

Monthly Climate Assessment and Outlook / La Niña Watch   (July 2016)
Issued: 03 August 2016

EL NIÑO ADVISORY NO. 17
Issued:  04 July 2016


EL NIÑO ADVISORY NO. 16
Issued: 08 June 2016


EL NIÑO ADVISORY NO. 15
Issued: 04 May 2016


EL NIÑO ADVISORY NO. 14
Issued: 04 April 2016


EL NIÑO ADVISORY NO. 13
Issued: 03 March 2016


EL NIÑO ADVISORY NO. 12
Issued: 04 February 2016


EL NIÑO ADVISORY NO. 11
Issued: 07 January 2016


EL NIÑO ADVISORY NO. 10
Issued: 07 December 2015


EL NIÑO ADVISORY NO. 9
Issued:  05 November 2015


EL NIÑO ADVISORY NO. 8
Issued:  08 October 2015


EL NIÑO ADVISORY NO. 7
Issued:  05 August 2015


EL NIÑO ADVISORY NO. 6
Issued:  05 August 2015


 EL NIÑO ADVISORY NO. 5
Issued:  04 July 2015


EL NIÑO ADVISORY NO. 4
Issued:  03 June 2015 

EL NIÑO ADVISORY NO. 3
Issued:  06 May 2015 

EL NIÑO ADVISORY NO. 2
Issued:  07 April 2015 

EL NIÑO ADVISORY NO. 1
Issued:  11 March 2015 

Press Statement: Imminent Termination of Northeast Monsoon
Issued: 09 March 2016

Press Statement: Weak El Niño in Progress
Issued:  11 March 2015

Dry Condition Advisory

Issued:  28 November 2014

Press Statement: EL NIÑO Watch
Issued: 01 May 2014



PREVIOUS DRY SPELL/DROUGHT ASSESSMENTS