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Gale Warning
Issued at: 05:00 AM TODAY , 24 January 2017
Gale Warning # 19
For: STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURGE OF THE NORTHEAST MONSOON.

Gale Warning in PDF file



Weather Advisory
As of today,there is no Weather Advisory issued.


Dams Water Level Update
As of 6 AM, 24 January  2017

General Flood Advisories - Regional
Issued 24 January 2017


Daily Basin Hydrological Forecast
Issued 23 January 2017




Monthly Climate Assessment and Outlook

La Niña-like conditions continue
Issued: 05 January 2017
updates shall be issued as appropriate.

Monthly Rainfall Forecast
RAINFALL FORECAST  (February - July 2017) 
UPDATED: 18 January 2017 


Regional Rainfall Forecast
Issued: 18 January 2017
Valid for: February - July 2017
Farm Weather Forecast and Advisories
ISSUED              : 8AM, TUESDAY, JANUARY 24,2017
VALID UNTIL      :  8AM, WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 25,2017
FWFA:  N0. 17-024


Ten-Day Regional Agri-Weather Information

DECADE NO. 3  JANUARY 21- 31, 2017

PHILIPPINE AGRI-WEATHER FORECAST

TThe weather systems that will affect the country are northeast monsoon, tail-end of a cold front, and low pressure area (LPA).

During the early days of the forecast period, Visayas, Mindanao, Bicol Region, and the provinces of Aurora, Quezon and Palawan will have cloudy skies with rains and thunderstorms.  Afterwards, Bicol Region and the eastern portion of Visayas and Mindanao will experience cloudy skies with rains or thunderstorms while the northern portion of Luzon will have light rains. The LPA will bring cloudiness with rains or thunderstorms over Bicol Region, Visayas and Mindanao at the latter part of the ten-day period. The rest of the country will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rains or thunderstorms.

Moderate to strong northeasterly winds will prevail over the whole country with moderate to rough seas.

The eastern and central equatorial Pacific is in neutral condition.


Seasonal Climate Outlook
Issued:  15 July 2016
FOR JULY TO DECEMBER 2016
PDF 




Astronomical Diary
Issued 01 January 2017
Planet Conjuction, Famous Equilateral triangle in the sky and Annual Quadrantid meteor shower...




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Overview

Based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007b), changes in climate patterns are projected to have a number of impacts including possible water shortages, decreased agricultural production, and food insecurity. With these considerations, a joint project undertaking was forged between the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), the FAO-AMICAF (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations), and University of Cantabria in Spain. The project aims to assess vulnerability of households to food insecurity through the use of a tool called MOSAICC (Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change). Ultimately, climate information generated from the project can be used to provide relevant and updated climate information for national socioeconomic policy making.

The work plan was implemented through a series of workflow wherein PAGASA undertook the first step of the work plan which is the climate scenario downscaling. Global climate models (GCMs) were statistically downscaled at station level under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3). These GCMs are BCM2, CNCM3, and MPEH5.

Results of climate projections are provided in two time period: historical climate (1971-2000) and future climate (2011-2040) using two Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES): A1B (medium-range) and A2 (high-range). SRES are based on projected greenhouse gases emissions in future years.

There are three seasonal variables available for download : precipitation, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature. Season is defined as an average of three-month values: DJF (December-January-February), MAM (March, April, May), JJA (June, July, August), and SON (September-October-November).

A technical note to you understand our products is also available for download via this link .

NOTE: Kindly refer to this article for citation of methodology.

References

(2014). Assessments of Climate Change Impacts and Mapping of Vulnerability to Food Insecurity under Climate Change to Strengthen Household Food Security with Livelihoods’ Adaptation Approaches (AMICAF): Project Terminal Report. Submitted to Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Country Office in the Philippines. Quezon City: DOST-PAGASA.

Basconcillo, J., A. Lucero, A. Solis, R. Sandoval, Jr., E. Bautista, T. Koizumi, and H. Kanamaru, 2016: Statistically downscaled projected changes in Seasonal Mean Temperature and Rainfall in Cagayan Valley, Philippines. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan94A, 151-164.

IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

Lucero, A., Basconcillo, J., Solis, A., Kanamaru, H., Bautista, E., Sandoval, R., Hilario, S., Juanillo, E., (2014). Recent Projected Changes (2011-2040) in Seasonal Mean Temperature and Rainfall in the Philippines. Paper presented at the 3rd National Climate Conference. Manila, Philippines.

Manzanas, R., Brands, S., San-Martin, D., Lucero, A., Limbo, C., Gutierrez, J. (2015) Statistical Downscaling in the Tropics is Sensitive to Reanalysis Choice. Journal of Climate., Vol. 28, 4171-4184




payong pagasa on android The latest version of the official PAGASA app can now be downloaded on Google play store

Weather Division is now  ISO 9001:2008 Certified
Proof has been furnished by means of an audit that the requirements of ISO 9001:2008 are met.

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