Gale Warning
Issued at: 5:00 PM TODAY , 19 February 2017
Gale Warning # 3 (Final)
For: strong to gale force winds associated with the northeast monsoon.

Gale Warning in PDF file



Weather Advisory
As of today, there is no Weather Advisory issued.
TODAY: 2017-02-20 03:51:22
EXPIRE:2017-02-18 10:56:58



Dams Water Level Update
As of 6 AM, 20 February  2017

General Flood Advisories - Regional
Issued 20 February 2017


Daily Basin Hydrological Forecast
Issued 20 February 2017




Monthly Climate Assessment and Outlook

La Niña-like conditions continue
Issued: 06 February 2017
updates shall be issued as appropriate.

Monthly Rainfall Forecast
RAINFALL FORECAST  (February - July 2017) 
UPDATED: 18 January 2017 


Regional Rainfall Forecast
Issued: 18 January 2017
Valid for: February - July 2017
Farm Weather Forecast and Advisories
ISSUED              : 8AM, MONDAY, FEBRUARY 20, 2017
VALID UNTIL      :  8AM, TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 21, 2017
FWFA:  N0. 17-051


Ten-Day Regional Agri-Weather Information

DECADE NO. 5  FEBRUARY 11- 20, 2017

PHILIPPINE AGRI-WEATHER FORECAST

The weather systems that will affect the country are northeast monsoon, tail-end of a cold front, and low pressure area (LPA).

During the early days of the forecast period, the regions of Eastern Visayas, CARAGA and Davao will experience rains and isolated thunderstorms while the regions of Ilocos, Cordillera, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon and Bicol will have light rains. The LPA is expected to bring rains and isolated thunderstorms over Mindanao, Visayas and MIMAROPA at the midst of the decadal period. After that, the provinces of Aurora, Laguna and Quezon, and the regions of Cagayan Valley, Bicol, Eastern Visayas and CARAGA will experience rains and thunderstorms. The rest of Luzon will have light rains while the rest of the country will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rains.

Moderate to strong northeasterly winds will blow over the whole country during the first half of the ten-day period. Afterwards, Luzon will gradually have moderate to strong winds coming from northeast to east while the rest of the country will have light to moderate winds coming from the east.

The seaboards of the whole country will be moderate to rough during the first half of the forecast period. After that, the coastal waters over Luzon will be moderate to rough while the rest of the country will have slight to moderate seas.

The eastern and central equatorial Pacific is in neutral condition.


Seasonal Climate Outlook
Issued:  20 January 2017
FOR January - June 2017
PDF 




Astronomical Diary
Issued 01 February 2017
National Astronomy Week (NAW), Famous Equilateral triangle in the sky and Annular Solar Eclipse (not visible in the Philippines)...




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Overview

Based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007b), changes in climate patterns are projected to have a number of impacts including possible water shortages, decreased agricultural production, and food insecurity. With these considerations, a joint project undertaking was forged between the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), the FAO-AMICAF (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations), and University of Cantabria in Spain. The project aims to assess vulnerability of households to food insecurity through the use of a tool called MOSAICC (Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change). Ultimately, climate information generated from the project can be used to provide relevant and updated climate information for national socioeconomic policy making.

Overview

The work plan was implemented through a series of workflow wherein PAGASA undertook the first step of the work plan which is the climate scenario downscaling. Global climate models (GCMs) were statistically downscaled at station level under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3). These GCMs are BCM2, CNCM3, and MPEH5.

Results of climate projections are provided in two time period: historical climate (1971-2000) and future climate (2011-2040) using two Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES): A1B (medium-range) and A2 (high-range). SRES are based on projected greenhouse gases emissions in future years.

There are three seasonal variables available for download : precipitation, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature. Season is defined as an average of three-month values: DJF (December-January-February), MAM (March, April, May), JJA (June, July, August), and SON (September-October-November).

A technical note to you understand our products is also available for download via this link .

NOTE: Kindly refer to this article for citation of methodology.

References

(2014). Assessments of Climate Change Impacts and Mapping of Vulnerability to Food Insecurity under Climate Change to Strengthen Household Food Security with Livelihoods’ Adaptation Approaches (AMICAF): Project Terminal Report. Submitted to Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Country Office in the Philippines. Quezon City: DOST-PAGASA.

Basconcillo, J., A. Lucero, A. Solis, R. Sandoval, Jr., E. Bautista, T. Koizumi, and H. Kanamaru, 2016: Statistically downscaled projected changes in Seasonal Mean Temperature and Rainfall in Cagayan Valley, Philippines. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan94A, 151-164.

IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

Lucero, A., Basconcillo, J., Solis, A., Kanamaru, H., Bautista, E., Sandoval, R., Hilario, S., Juanillo, E., (2014). Recent Projected Changes (2011-2040) in Seasonal Mean Temperature and Rainfall in the Philippines. Paper presented at the 3rd National Climate Conference. Manila, Philippines.

Manzanas, R., Brands, S., San-Martin, D., Lucero, A., Limbo, C., Gutierrez, J. (2015) Statistical Downscaling in the Tropics is Sensitive to Reanalysis Choice. Journal of Climate., Vol. 28, 4171-4184



Overview

In 2015, DOST-PAGASA generated another climate change projections under the most recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models to reach more end-users. Six Earth System Models (ESMs) were used in this project namely, CanESM2, CNCM5, MPI-ESM, GFDL-ESM2M, IPSL-CM5 and MIROC-ESM. Because these ESMs have coarse resolution (~200km), It is neccesary to downscale it to a much higher resolution (~10km) to be able to capture the local climate patterns and use it for adaptation strategies. You will be provided with the ensemble mean of the six ESMs.

These recent climate projection used two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios, RCP 4.5 (intermidiate emission) and RCP 8.5 (high-emission),  which are based from the most recent greenhouse gases concentration pathways termed after possible radiative forcing values.

Output of climate projections are presented in two time slices: historical climate (1971-2000) and future climate (2036-2065) with scenarios.

There are three seasonal variables available for download : precipitation, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature. Season is defined as an average of three-month values: DJF (December-January-February), MAM (March, April, May), JJA (June, July, August), and SON (September-October-November).

A technical note to you understand our products is also available for download via this
link .






payong pagasa on android The latest version of the official PAGASA app can now be downloaded on Google play store

Ceremonial Turn-over of JICA funded
Aparri and Guiuan Radar Stations
PAGASA Weather and Flood Forecasting Center (WFFC)
Agham Road, Diliman, Quezon City
03 February 2017

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Weather Division is now  ISO 9001:2008 Certified
Proof has been furnished by means of an audit that the requirements of ISO 9001:2008 are met.

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