PAGASA ENSO Alert System Status

PAGASA: ENSO-neutral conditions continue to prevail over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Most climate models combined with expert judgments suggest a 66% chance of La Niña forming in Sept-Oct-Nov (SON) 2024 season and will likely persist until the first quarter (Jan-Feb-Mar) of 2025. With these model probabilities, borderline La Niña or La Niña-like conditions will be likely during the forecast period. (Updated: 28 August 2024)