Impact Assessment for Agriculture
Preface

The Impact Assessment and Applications Section (IAAS) of Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD) regularly issue this monthly/bulletin which will provide users such as food security managers, economic policy makers, agricultural statisticians and agricultural extension officials with qualitative information on the current and potential effects of climate and weather variability on rainfed crops, particularly rice and corn. This bulletin, entitled “Climate Impact Assessment for Agriculture in the Philippines”, represents a method for converting meteorological data into economic information that can be used as supplement to information from other available sources.

For example, an agricultural statistician or economist involved in crop production and yield forecast problems can combine the assessment with analysis from area survey results, reports on the occurrence of pests and diseases, farmers’ reports and other data sources.

The impact assessments are based on agroclimatic indices derived from historical rainfall data recorded for the period 1951 to the present. The indices, expressed in raw values percent of normals and percentile ranks, together with real time meteorological data (monthly rainfall, in percent of normal), percent of normal cumulative rainfall, as well as the occurrence of significant event such as typhoons, floods and droughts are the tools used in the assessment of crop performance. Crop reports from PAGASA field stations are also helpful.


The narrative impact assessment included in the bulletin depicts the regional performance of upland, 1st lowland and 2nd lowland palay; and dry and wet season corn crops, depending on the period or the season. Tabulated values of normal rainfall and generalized monsoon and yield moisture indices are provided for ready reference. Spatial analysis of rainfall, percent of normal rainfall and the generalized monsoon indices in percentile ranks are also presented on maps to help users visualize any unusual weather occurring during the period. The generalized monsoon indices in particular, are drought indicators; hence, the tables (see Appendices) together with the threshold values can be used in assessing drought impact, if there are any. It also helps assess any probable crop failure.

It is hoped therefore that this bulletin would help provide the decision-makers, planners and economist with timely and reliable early warning/information on climatic impact including the potential for subsistence food shortfalls, thereby enabling them to plan alternate cropping, if possible, food assistance strategies/mitigation measures to reduce the adverse impact of climate and eventually improve disaster preparedness.

Impact assessment for other principal crops such as sugarcane and coconut, for energy and for water resources management, are from time to time will be included in the forthcoming issues of this bulletin.


The IAAS of CAD will appreciate suggestions/comments from end-users and interested parties for the improvement of this bulletin.

Definition of Terms
The Generalized Monsoon Index (GMI) helps determine the performance of the rains during the season and serves as a good indicator of potential irrigation supplies. It is a tool used to assess rainfed crops.

The GMI for the southwest monsoon (GMIsw) in an area during June to September is defined as follows:
GMIsw = W6P6 + W7P7 + W8P8 + W9P9

The GMI for the northeast monsoon (GMIne) in an area during October to January is defined as:
GMIne = W10P10 + W11P11 + W12P12 + W1P1

where:

W = weight coefficient of monthly rainfall for the season;
P = rainfall amount in the ith month
(i = 1 for January, 2 = for February, etc.)

The Yield Moisture Index (YMI) is a simple index that helps the users assess agroclimatic crop conditions during the crop season. The YMI for a particular crop is defined as follows:
n YMI =  [Pi Ki] i

where:

i = crop stage (1 = planting/transplanting,
2 = vegetative, 3 = flowering, 4 = maturity, etc.)
n = total no. of crop stages;
P = rainfall during the ith crop stage; and
K = appropriate crop coefficient for the ith crop stage.

Tentatively, the threshold values of categories of indices for interpretation being adopted for both YMI and GMI are as follows:


PERCINTELE RANK INTERPRETATION
> 80 Potential for Flood Damage
41 - 80 Near normal to above-normal crop condition
21 - 40 Moderate drought impact with reduced yield
11 - 20 Drought impact with major yield losses
< 10 Severe drought impact with crop failure and potential food shortages

Agroclimatic / AGROCLIMATIC/CROP CONDITION ASSESSMENT FOR SEPTEMBER 2021

OVERVIEW

Harvesting of late-planted upland palay and delayed-planted lowland 1st palay has begun in some parts of the country; good to normal yield is expected in Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, CAR, Batanes, Nueva Ecija, Zambales, CALABARZON, most of MIMAROPA, Romblon, Bicol Region, Western Samar, Leyte, Panay Island, Bohol, Zamboanga del Norte, Bukidnon, most of Davao Region, CARAGA and BARMM. In contrast, below normal yield is anticipated in other areas of Ilocos Region, Cagayan, Aurora, Pangasinan, Palawan, Cebu, Negros Occidental, Northern Samar, Zamboanga Sibugay, Misamis Oriental, and South Cotabato because the crops suffered from moisture stress during their critical stage of growth and development.

The lowland 1st palay, currently in reproductive to maturity stage is faring well in Masbate, Bohol, Negros Oriental, Zamboanga del Norte, Davao Region, Bukidnon, and Maguindanao. However, the same crops might have suffered from moisture stress in Cebu, Negros Occidental, Zamboanga Sibugay, most of Northern Mindanao and General Santos, because of the minimal rainfall received over those areas. Such crops in the same stage may have been damaged by inundation due to heavy rainfall induced by the Tropical Cyclone passage in most of Ilocos Region, Zambales, Nueva Ecija, CAR, Batanes, Cagayan, most of CALABARZON, Bicol Region, MIMAROPA, Eastern Visayas, Panay Island, and most of CARAGA.

The weather systems that affected the country during the month were the Southwest (SW) monsoon, localized thunderstorms, low pressure areas (LPAs), easterlies, intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the passage of two (2) tropical cyclones (TCs), namely: Typhoon (TY) “Jolina” (Sept. 6-9) and Typhoon (TY) “Kiko” (Sept. 7-12). TY Jolina made landfall and brought heavy rainfall, which caused flooding in parts of Eastern Visayas and Southern Luzon, while TY Kiko did not make landfall but enhanced the Southwest monsoon and brought moderate to heavy rainfall, which caused flooding and landslide in some parts of Luzon and Western Visayas.

Rainfall assessment for the month showed that near to above normal rainfall conditions were experienced in most parts of the country except for Northern Luzon where below normal rainfall conditions were observed.

REGIONS

Harvesting of delayed-planted upland palay has just started. Good to normal yield is expected in Ilocos Norte and Ilocos Sur, but other areas in the region may have below normal yield due to insufficient moisture experienced by the crops during their critical stage of growth and development.
The heavy rainfall brought by the TC passage might have caused potential damaged to lowland first palay, which is currently in reproductive to maturity stage.
Harvesting of delayed-planted upland palay has just started. Below normal yield is anticipated because the crops suffered from moisture stress during their critical stage of growth and development. In Batanes, good to normal yield is expected. However, for the lowland first palay in the ripening stage, below normal yield might be expected throughout the Region due to heavy rainfall brought indirectly by the TC passage.
Harvesting of delayed-planted upland palay has just started. Good to normal yield is generally expected in the Region. Meanwhile, for the lowland first palay in the reproductive to ripening stage, below normal yield might be expected due to heavy rainfall influenced by TC passage.
Harvesting of delayed-planted upland palay has just started. Good to normal yield is expected in most parts of the Region, except in Aurora.
Meanwhile, the lowland first palay that are in the reproductive to ripening stages, below normal yield might be expected due to heavy rainfall influenced by TC passage.
Harvesting of delayed-planted upland palay and delayed-planted, lowland 1st palay have just started. Good to normal yield is generally expected in the Region. Meanwhile, the lowland first palay in reproductive to ripening stage in most parts of the Region may have been damaged due to heavy rainfall caused by the TC passage.
Harvesting of delayed-planted upland palay has just started. Good to normal yield is expected, except in Palawan, where crops most likely suffered from moisture stress during the critical stage of growth. In addition, heavy rainfall due to TC most likely damaged the lowland first palay in reproductive to ripening stage.
Harvesting of delayed-planted upland palay and late-planted lowland 1st palay have just started. Good to normal yield is expected in the Region. The lowland first palay in reproductive to ripening stages in most parts of the region may have been damaged due to heavy rainfall influenced by the TC passage.
Harvesting of delayed-planted upland palay has started. Good to normal yield is expected in Bohol and Negros Oriental, while the rest of the region could have below normal yield due to moisture stress experienced by the crops during their critical stage of growth and development. The lowland first palay, currently in the reproductive to ripening stage are in good condition courtesy of the sufficient rainfall during the month.
Harvesting of delayed-planted upland palay has just started. Good to normal yield is expected. Meanwhile, the lowland first palay in Panay Island, currently in reproductive to ripening stages might have been damaged due to heavy rainfall caused by the TC passage.
Harvesting of delayed-planted upland and lowland 1st palay has just started. Good to normal yield is expected in most parts of the Region, except in Northern Samar, which could have below normal yield due to moisture stress during the maturity stage. The lowland first palay in reproductive to ripening stage in most parts of the region might also have been damaged due to heavy rainfall caused by the TC passage.
Harvesting of delayed-planted upland palay has just started. Below normal yield is expected due to moisture stress. Meanwhile, lowland first palay in the ripening stage in Zamboanga del Norte are in good condition because of sufficient rainfall received in the area. In contrast, crops in Zamboanga Sibugay might have been suffering from moisture stress.
Harvesting of delayed-planted upland palay has just started. Good to normal yield is expected in most parts of the Region, except in Misamis Oriental. The lowland first palay in reproductive to ripening stage may be suffering from moisture stress in most parts of the Region.
Harvesting of delayed-planted upland palay has just started. Good to normal yield is expected in most parts of the Region. Meanwhile, lowland first palay in the ripening stage are in good condition courtesy of the sufficient rainfall.
Harvesting of delayed-planted upland palay has just begun. Below normal yield is expected due to moisture stress experienced by the crops during their maturity stage. The same condition may be observed in the lowland first palay which are in reproductive to ripening stages.
Harvesting of delayed-planted, lowland 1st palay has just started. Good to normal yield is anticipated. The lowland first palay in reproductive to ripening stage in most parts of the Region may have been damaged due to heavy rainfall influenced by the TC passage.
Harvesting of delayed-planted, lowland 1st palay has just started. Good to normal yield is expected. Similarly, the remaining lowland first palay currently in the ripening stage is in good condition courtesy of the sufficient rainfall.

Ten Day Rainfall Distribution

Monthly Rainfall Distribution

Generalized Moonsoon Index

Tropical Cyclone

Actual Rainfall and Potential Evapotranspiration

Stations

For Particulars, please contact:

DR. MARCELINO Q. VILAFUERTE II


OIC, Impact Assessment and Applications Section (IAAS)

Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD), DOST-PAGASA

Trunkline No.: (02)8284-0800 (Loc. 904)

E-mail: mvillafuerte@pagasa.dost.gov.ph