During the start of the dekad, TC “Inday” will bring cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms over Cagayan Valley, most areas of the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), and Ilocos Norte. Weather conditions in these areas are expected to gradually improve as TC “Inday” moves farther northwestward. However, cloudy cloudy skies with occasional rainshowers and thunderstorms may still persist in some areas. Monsoon rains are expected over Zambales, Bataan, and Occidental Mindoro, while occasional rains may affect Metro Manila, the rest of Central Luzon, Cavite, Batangas, Laguna, Palawan, Western Visayas, and Negros Occidental. The rest of Luzon, Visayas, and Zamboanga Peninsula will have cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms due to the Southwest Monsoon. The rest of the country will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms. After this, the Southwest Monsoon will bring monsoon rains over Zambales and Bataan. Occasional rains are expected over Metro Manila, Pampanga, Cavite, Batangas, Laguna, and Occidental Mindoro. The Ilocos Region, most of CAR, rest of MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, rest of Central Luzon, rest of CALABARZON, and Western Visayas will have cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms. The rest of the country will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms. During the middle of the dekad, the western sections of Northern and Central Luzon will continue to have cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms due to the Southwest Monsoon. The rest of the country is expected to experience improved weather conditions for the remainder of the forecast period.
At the beginning of the dekad, TC “Inday” will bring stormy conditions over Batanes and gusty winds over Cagayan. Southwesterly wind flow will prevail over Luzon and Visayas, while Mindanao will generally experience southeasterly to southerly winds. Thereafter, winds from the south to southwest will dominate the northern and western sections of Luzon, while the rest of the country will continue to experience winds from the southeast to south winds. During the latter part of the forecast period, southwesterly wind flow will gradually prevail over the entire archipelago.
Moderate to rough sea conditions are expected over the northern and western sections of Luzon, while slight to moderate seas will prevail over the rest of the archipelago during the first half of the dekad. After this, moderate to rough seas will continue to be experienced across the country’s seaboards up to the end of the forecast period.
ENSO ALERT SYSTEM STATUS: EL NIÑO (Updated: 06 July 2026)
A weak to moderate El Niño continues to be present in the tropical Pacific. Climate models suggest that El Niño will further intensify, becoming very strong by October-November-December 2026 season.
El Niño typically increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall conditions across much of the country, raising the risk of dry spells and drought, particularly in vulnerable areas. However, above-normal rainfall conditions may still occur, particularly over the western sections of the Philippines during the Southwest Monsoon (i.e., Habagat) season, especially when enhanced by tropical cyclone activity.
| ACTUAL SOIL MOISTURE CONDITION (as of July 1 – 10, 2026) |
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| WET | MOIST | DRY |
| Zambales, Bataan, most parts of Cordillera Administrative Region, some portions of National Capital Region, most parts of Palawan, Romblon, Occidental Mindoro, Marinduque, some portions of Capiz, Negros Occidental, and BARMM | Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Nueva Ecija, Batangas, Rizal, Laguna, some portions of Cavite, Oriental Mindoro, some portions of Iloilo, Siquijor, Southern Leyte, some portions of Eastern Samar, and Davao del Sur | The rest of the country |
With the expected influence of tropical disturbances and the Southwest Monsoon, farmers are encouraged to take preventive measures to reduce possible damage to crops and livestock. Fields prone to flooding should be kept well-drained by clearing irrigation canals and drainage systems. Mature crops that are ready for harvest should be harvested early and stored in protected areas to avoid losses from prolonged rainfall. The application of fertilizers and crop protection products should be postponed during periods of frequent or heavy rain to improve their effectiveness. Farmers should also inspect crops regularly for signs of water stress, lodging, pests, and diseases that commonly develop under wet conditions. Livestock and poultry should be kept in safe, dry shelters, while farm equipment and agricultural facilities should be secured against strong winds and heavy rains. Once weather conditions become more favorable later in the outlook period, field activities such as land preparation, planting, and other crop management operations may gradually resume where soil conditions allow. Stay updated with weather forecasts and advisories from DOST-PAGASA and local authorities to support timely agricultural operations and effective risk management.
| Region 1 Ilocos Region | WEATHER CONDITIONS | ||
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Forecast Rainfall (mm): 25 – 180 |
Relative Humidity (%): 45 – 100 |
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No. of Rainy Days (>1 mm): 4 – 8 |
Temperature (°C): 23 – 36 |
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Prepared By:
RAMF/JOT/ARL/
JAE/HGDE
Checked
MEVT
Approved
TAC
Uploaded
HGDE