In the first half of the dekad, the ridge of the HPA will bring partly cloudy skies over Cagayan Valley and the provinces of Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Apayao, Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, and Ifugao. Meanwhile, the rest of the country will experience generally partly cloudy to cloudy conditions, with chances of isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, particularly over Mindanao and the eastern sections of the Visayas due to the easterlies.
For the remainder of the forecast period, the ridge of the High-Pressure Area (HPA) will continue to bring partly cloudy skies over Northern and Central Luzon. Meanwhile, the easterlies will prevail over the rest of the country, resulting in generally partly cloudy to cloudy skies with chances of isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms, particularly over the Visayas and Mindanao.
Winds will generally come from the southeast to southwest over Northern and Central Luzon, while east to northeast over the rest of the country throughout the forecast period.
Slight to moderate sea conditions will prevail over all seaboards during the forecast
ENSO ALERT SYSTEM STATUS: EL NIÑO WATCH (Updated: 25 March 2026)
ENSO-neutral prevails and is most likely to persist until the June-July-August 2026 season. However, model forecasts suggest an increasing probability of El Niño conditions as early as the July-August-September (JAS) season of 2026.
An El Niño is a warm phase of ENSO and is characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific. Based on the PAGASA ENSO Alert and Warning System, when conditions are favorable for the development of El Niño, with a forecast probability of 55% or more within the next six months, an El Niño Watch is issued.
El Niño increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall conditions, which could bring negative impacts (such as dry spells and droughts) in some areas of the country. However, above-normal rainfall conditions during the Southwest Monsoon Season (Habagat) may also be experienced over the western part of the country.
PAGASA will continue to closely monitor the development of this ENSO phenomenon. All concerned government agencies and the general public are encouraged to keep on monitoring and take precautionary measures against the impending impacts of El Niño.
| ACTUAL SOIL MOISTURE CONDITION (as of March 11-20, 2026) |
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| WET | MOIST | DRY |
| Surigao del Sur | Casiguran, Infanta, Albay, Sorsogon, Eastern Visayas, Bohol, Surigao del Norte, North Cotabato, Agusan del Norte, and Lanao del Norte | The rest of the country |
An El Niño Watch indicates a higher likelihood of below-normal rainfall, prolonged dry spells, and elevated temperatures during the dry season, which can lead to soil moisture depletion, water shortages, and reduced crop yields. Farmers are advised to prepare by using drought-tolerant or early-maturing crop varieties, adjusting planting schedules, and diversifying crops to reduce risk. Efficient water management such as irrigating during cooler hours, conserving water, and utilizing rainwater harvesting is essential, along with soil moisture conservation practices like mulching and adding organic matter. Close monitoring of pests and diseases is also important. Staying updated with advisories from DOST-PAGASA and coordinating with local agricultural offices will help farmers make timely decisions and minimize the impacts of potential drought conditions.
| Region 1 Ilocos Region | WEATHER CONDITIONS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
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Forecast Rainfall (mm): 0 – 25 |
Relative Humidity (%): 40 – 96 |
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No. of Rainy Days (>1 mm): 0 – 3 |
Temperature (°C): 22 – 35 |
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RICE |
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| CORN |
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| HIGH VALUE CROPS |
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| FARM OPERATIONS |
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| Region 2 Cagayan Valley | WEATHER CONDITIONS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
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Forecast Rainfall (mm): 0 – 25 |
Relative Humidity (%): 45– 97 |
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No. of Rainy Days (>1 mm): 0 – 4 |
Temperature (°C): 21 – 37 |
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RICE |
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| CORN |
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| HIGH VALUE CROPS |
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| FARM OPERATIONS |
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| CAR (Cordillera Administrative Region) | WEATHER CONDITIONS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
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Forecast Rainfall (mm): 0 – 50 |
Relative Humidity (%): 60 – 98 |
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No. of Rainy Days (>1 mm): 2 – 5 |
Temperature (°C): 15 – 35 |
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RICE |
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| CORN |
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| HIGH VALUE CROPS |
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| FARM OPERATIONS |
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| Region 3 Central Luzon | WEATHER CONDITIONS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
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Forecast Rainfall (mm): 0 – 25 |
Relative Humidity (%): 40 – 97 |
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No. of Rainy Days (>1 mm): 0 – 3 |
Temperature (°C): 22 – 36 |
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RICE |
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| CORN |
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| HIGH VALUE CROPS |
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| FARM OPERATIONS |
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| NCR (National Capital Region) | WEATHER CONDITIONS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
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Forecast Rainfall (mm): 0 – 25 |
Relative Humidity (%): 45 – 95 |
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No. of Rainy Days (>1 mm): 0 – 3 |
Temperature (°C): 23 – 35 |
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RICE |
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| CORN |
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| HIGH VALUE CROPS |
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| FARM OPERATIONS |
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| Region 4A CALABARZON | WEATHER CONDITIONS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
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Forecast Rainfall (mm): 0 – 25 |
Relative Humidity (%): 50 – 98 |
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No. of Rainy Days (>1 mm): 0 – 3 |
Temperature (°C): 21 – 35 |
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RICE |
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| CORN |
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| HIGH VALUE CROPS |
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| FARM OPERATIONS |
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| Region 4B MIMAROPA | WEATHER CONDITIONS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
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Forecast Rainfall (mm): 0 – 25 |
Relative Humidity (%): 40 – 96 |
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No. of Rainy Days (>1 mm): 0 – 3 |
Temperature (°C): 24 – 34 |
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RICE |
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| CORN |
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| HIGH VALUE CROPS |
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| FARM OPERATIONS |
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| Region 5 Bicol Region | WEATHER CONDITIONS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
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Forecast Rainfall (mm): 0 – 25 |
Relative Humidity (%): 55 – 97 |
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No. of Rainy Days (>1 mm): 0 – 3 |
Temperature (°C): 21 – 35 |
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RICE |
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| HIGH VALUE CROPS |
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| FARM OPERATIONS |
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| Region 6 Western Visayas | WEATHER CONDITIONS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
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Forecast Rainfall (mm): 0 – 25 |
Relative Humidity (%): 40 – 95 |
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No. of Rainy Days (>1 mm): 0 – 3 |
Temperature (°C): 23 – 34 |
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RICE |
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| CORN |
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| HIGH VALUE CROPS |
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| FARM OPERATIONS |
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| Region 7 Central Visayas | WEATHER CONDITIONS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
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Forecast Rainfall (mm): 0 – 25 |
Relative Humidity (%): 40 – 95 |
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No. of Rainy Days (>1 mm): 0 – 3 |
Temperature (°C): 23 – 35 |
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RICE |
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| CORN |
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| HIGH VALUE CROPS |
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| FARM OPERATIONS |
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| Region 8 Eastern Visayas | WEATHER CONDITIONS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
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Forecast Rainfall (mm): 0 – 25 |
Relative Humidity (%): 50 – 98 |
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No. of Rainy Days (>1 mm): 0 – 3 |
Temperature (°C): 24 – 34 |
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RICE |
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| CORN |
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| HIGH VALUE CROPS |
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| FARM OPERATIONS |
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| Region 9 Zamboanga Peninsula | WEATHER CONDITIONS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
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Forecast Rainfall (mm): 10 – 50 |
Relative Humidity (%): 45 – 96 |
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No. of Rainy Days (>1 mm): 1 – 4 |
Temperature (°C): 23 – 34 |
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RICE |
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| CORN |
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| HIGH VALUE CROPS |
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| FARM OPERATIONS |
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| Region 10 Northern Mindanao | WEATHER CONDITIONS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
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Forecast Rainfall (mm): 10 – 50 |
Relative Humidity (%): 40 – 98 |
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No. of Rainy Days (>1 mm): 1 – 4 |
Temperature (°C): 18 – 34 |
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RICE |
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| CORN |
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| HIGH VALUE CROPS |
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| FARM OPERATIONS |
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| Region 11 Davao Region | WEATHER CONDITIONS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
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Forecast Rainfall (mm): 0 – 30 |
Relative Humidity (%): 50 – 96 |
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No. of Rainy Days (>1 mm): 0 – 3 |
Temperature (°C): 24 – 35 |
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RICE |
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| HIGH VALUE CROPS |
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| FARM OPERATIONS |
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| Region 12 SOCCSKSARGEN | WEATHER CONDITIONS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
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Forecast Rainfall (mm): 0 – 75 |
Relative Humidity (%): 45– 95 |
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No. of Rainy Days (>1 mm): 0 – 4 |
Temperature (°C): 23 – 36 |
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RICE |
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| CORN |
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| HIGH VALUE CROPS |
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| FARM OPERATIONS |
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| Region 13 CARAGA | WEATHER CONDITIONS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
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Forecast Rainfall (mm): 0 – 75 |
Relative Humidity (%): 55 – 98 |
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No. of Rainy Days (>1 mm): 1 – 5 |
Temperature (°C): 23 – 35 |
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RICE |
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| CORN |
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| HIGH VALUE CROPS |
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| FARM OPERATIONS |
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| BARMM (Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao) | WEATHER CONDITIONS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
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Forecast Rainfall (mm): 0 – 25 |
Relative Humidity (%): 50 – 96 |
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No. of Rainy Days (>1 mm): 0 – 3 |
Temperature (°C): 21 – 35 |
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RICE |
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| CORN |
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| HIGH VALUE CROPS |
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| FARM OPERATIONS |
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Prepared By:
Checked MEVT
Approved TAC
Uploaded ARL