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This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
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This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
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This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).
Probabilistic Forecast Map
The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast
Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.
Objectives:
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Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
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Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
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Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.
Initial Condition: June 12, 2025
Week Validity: Jun 13-19, 2025
Rainfall deficit of 20-60mm is likely over most of Luzon while an increase of rainfall of 20-50mm is expected in Bicol region and most parts of Visayas and Mindanao.
Probability to Exceed 25mm
Probability to Exceed 50mm
Probability to Exceed 100mm
Probability to Exceed 150mm
Probability to Exceed 200mm
Initial Condition: June 12, 2025
Week Validity: Jun 13-19, 2025
Near to slightly warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country.
Initial Condition: June 12, 2025
Week Validity: Jun 13-19, 2025
Southwest monsoon affecting some areas in Western Luzon. Easterlies affecting the rest of the country during the forecast period.
Initial Condition: June 12, 2025
Week Validity: Jun 20-26, 2025
Increase of rainfall of 10-60mm is expected in most parts of the country.
Probability to Exceed 25mm
Probability to Exceed 50mm
Probability to Exceed 100mm
Probability to Exceed 150mm
Probability to Exceed 200mm
Initial Condition: June 12, 2025
Week Validity: Jun 20-26, 2025
Near average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country.
Initial Condition: June 12, 2025
Week Validity: Jun 20-26, 2025
Southwest monsoon affecting the western sections of Luzon and Visayas. Easterlies affecting Visayas and Mindanao during the forecast period.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: June 08, 2025
Week Validity: Jun 09-15, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in northern part of Ilocos Region and CAR, Cagayan Valley, and southwestern Mindanao where above normal rainfall is expected.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall most parts of northern and western Luzon, most parts of Visayas and western Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in northern and southern Luzon, and eastern Mindanao where above normal rainfall is expected.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: June 08, 2025
Week Validity: Jun 16-22, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in eastern part of Isabela and some areas in southern Luzon where above normal rainfall is expected.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, some areas in Caraga & Davao Region while the rest of Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in with some patches of below normal rainfall.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: June 08, 2025
Week Validity: Jun 23- Jul 06, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Apayao where above normal rainfall is expected.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, western Visayas, Samar provinces, and southwestern Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, western and central Visayas, northern Caraga, and Misamis Oriental and central Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: June 08, 2025
Week Validity: Jun 09-17, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in CAR & Cagayan Valley where above normal rainfall is expected.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in northern Luzon, Mindoro, southern Palawan, eastern Mindanao and Zamboanga Peninsula where above normal rainfall is expected.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in northern and southern Luzon, Mindoro, eastern Mindanao and Sultan Kudarat where above normal rainfall is expected.