PAGASA

Week 1 - Week 4
One-Month (running 10-day probalistic Forecast)

This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).

Probabilistic Forecast Map

The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast

Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.

Objectives:

Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.

GEFS
NCEP

WEEK 1
WEEK 2

Initial Condition: August 9, 2026

Week Validity: Aug 10-16, 2026

Week 1: Forecast Precipitation (mm)

•>200 mm over Pangasinan, La Union, Zambales and Bataan;

•100 – 150 mm over the rest of Ilocos Region, Abra, Benguet, the rest of Central Luzon (except Aurora), NCR, Cavite and Occidental Mindoro;

•50 – 99 mm over the rest of Luzon and Western Visayas.

•<50 mm over the rest of the country.

•

Probability to Exceed 25mm

•High to very high over most parts of Luzon and Antique;

•Moderate to high over Apayao, Cagayan, Isabela, Quirino, Aurora, Palawan, and Bicol Region;

•Low over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 50mm

•High to very high over the western section of Luzon (including Kalayaan Island), Abra, Benguet, Central Luzon (except Aurora), NCR, Cavite, Laguna, and Batangas;

•Moderate to high over the rest of CAR, Nueva Vizcaya, Quezon, and Antique;

•Low over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 100 mm

•High to very high over La Union, Pangasinan, and the western section of Central Luzon;

•Moderate to high over the rest of Western Luzon (including Kalayaan Island), except Southern Palawan;

•Low over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 150mm

•High to very high over La Union, Pangasinan, Zambales and Bataan;

•Moderate to high over Ilocos Sur, Benguet, Tarlac, Pampanga, Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, NCR and Occidental Mindoro;

•Low over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 200 mm

•Moderate to high over La Union, Pangasinan, Benguet, Zambales and Bataan;

•Low to moderate over Tarlac and Pampanga;

•Low over the rest of the country.

Initial Condition: August 9, 2026

Week Validity: Aug 10-16, 2026

2m Temperature Forecast (oC) Week 1: Aug 10-16, 2026

•Warmer-than-usual surroundings are likely over Cagayan, Isabela, Palawan, Bicol Region, Visayas, and Mindanao;

•Near to slightly warmer-than-usual surroundings are likely over the rest of Luzon.

Initial Condition: August 9, 2026

Week Validity: Aug 10-16, 2026

Southwest Monsoon will continue to affect the western sections of Luzon and Visayas. Easterlies likely to affects the rest of the country.

Initial Condition: August 9, 2026

Week Validity: Aug 17-23, 2026

Week 2: Forecast Precipitation (mm)

•>200 mm over the western section of Luzon, including Kalayaan Island, except for Southern Palawan;

•100 – 200 mm over the rest of Luzon and Antique;

•50 – 99 mm over the rest of Visayas and Mindanao.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

•High to high over most parts of Luzon and western parts of Panay island;

•Moderate to high over the rest Visayas;

•Low to moderate over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 50mm

•High to very high over most of Luzon (except for Catanduanes, Southern Palawan), Antique, and Guimaras;

•Moderate to high over the rest of Luzon and Western Visayas, NIR, Biliran, Samar, Northern Samar, and Zamboanga del Sur;

•Low to moderate over the rest of Visayas and Mindanao.

Probability to Exceed 100 mm

•High to very high over Batanes and the western section of Luzon (including Kalayaan Island), except Southern Palawan;

•Moderate to high over the rest of CAR, Aurora, the rest of CALABARZON, Oriental Mindoro, Camarines Sur, Albay, Antique, southern portion of Iloilo, and Guimaras;

•Low to moderate over the rest of Luzon, Western Visayas, and Negros Occidental;

•Low over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 150mm

•High to very high over Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Benguet, western section of Central Luzon, NCR, Cavite, Batangas, and Occidental Mindoro;

•Moderate to high over Abra, Ilocos Provinces, Laguna, Northern Palawan (including Kalayaan Island), Oriental Mindoro, and Antique;

•Low to moderate over the rest of Luzon;

•Low over Mindanao and the rest of the Visayas.

Probability to Exceed 200mm

•Moderate to high over La Union, Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan, NCR, Cavite, and Occidental Mindoro;

•Low to moderate over the rest of Luzon and the western section of Panay Isl.;

•Low over the rest of the country.

Initial Condition: August 9, 2026

Week Validity: Aug 17-23, 2026

2m Temperature Forecast (oC) Week 2: Aug 17-23, 2026

•Slightly warmer-than-usual surroundings are likely over Cagayan, Isabela, Palawan, portions of Bicol region, Visayas, and Mindanao;

•Near to slightly cooler-than-usual surroundings are likely over the rest of Luzon.

Initial Condition: August 9, 2026

Week Validity: Aug 17-23, 2026

Southwest Monsoon will affect the western sections of Central and Southern Luzon and Visayas. Easterlies likely to affects the rest of the country.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: August 03, 2026

Week Validity: Aug 04-10, 2026

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in Northern Luzon and northern part of Central Luzon while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Northern and Central Luzon, and Mindanao while Isabela, southern Luzon, Visayas, Zamboanga del Norte & Sur, and Caraga Region will likely have above normal rainfall

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in western parts of Northern and Central Luzon, Cagayan, and Mindanao while the rest of Luaon, Visayas, Zamboanga del Norte & Sur, and Caraga Region will likely have above normal rainfall

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: August 03, 2026

Week Validity: Aug 11-17 , 2026

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Panay Island, and western Mindanao while Bicol region, the rest of Visayas & Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of northern and western Luzon while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: August 03, 2026

Week Validity: Aug 18-31, 2026

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Apayao, Cagayan, Isabela, some areas in southern Luzon, Panay Island, and eastern Mindanao where above normal rainfall is expected.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Apayao, Cagayan, Isabela, southern Luzon, and spme areas in eastern Mindanao where above normal rainfall is expected.

10 Days

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: August 03, 2026

Week Validity: Aug 04-12, 2026

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in Ilocos Norte, Apayao, and western Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of northern Luzon, Aurora, and Nueva Ecija while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in Ilocos Region, Apayao, Cagayan, and western Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall

GEFS Archive