Sub Seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Forecast
  • This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;

  • This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html

  • This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).

Probabilistic Forecast Map

The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast

Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.

Objectives:

  • Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.

  • Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.

  • Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.



Initial Condition: September 28, 2023
Week Validity: Sep 29- Oct 05, 2023


Rainfall deficit of 20-100mm is expected in most parts of the country except in Palawan & Davao Oriental where there is 10-30mm increase of rainfall

Probability to Exceed 25mm

High to very high in most parts of the country;
Moderate to high over Ilocos Norte and the Southern portion of Mindanao.

Probability to Exceed 50mm

High to very high in Western and Central Visayas, MIMAROPA, and most of Central Luzon and Bicol Region;
Moderate to high over most of Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, Eastern Visayas, and the southern portion of Ilocos Region, CAR, and Cagayan Valley,
Low over the rest of Luzon and Mindanao.



Probability to Exceed 100mm

Moderate to high in Northern Palawan, and portions of Negros and Antique;
Low over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 150mm

Low in most parts of the country.

Probability to Exceed 200mm

Low in most parts of the country.

Initial Condition: September 28, 2023
Week Validity: Sep 29- Oct 05, 2023


Average to warmer than average surface air temperature will likely experience in most parts of the country except in Cebu and Negros Island where slightly cooler temperature is expected.

Initial Condition: September 28, 2023
Week Validity: Sep 29- Oct 05, 2023


Westerly to southwesterly windflow affecting Visayas and Mindanao. Northeasterly windflow affecting Northern Luzon.

Initial Condition: September 28, 2023
Week Validity: Oct 04-10, 2023


Rainfall deficit of 20-60mm is expected in most parts of Visayas and Mindanao while 20-60mm increase of rainfall in Luzon.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

High to very high in Luzon, Western Visayas and Bukidnon;
Moderate to high over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 50mm

Moderate to high in Luzon, Western Visayas, Northern Samar, and portions of Zamboanga, Lanao, and Bukidnon;
Low over the rest of Visayas and Mindanao.



Probability to Exceed 100mm

Moderate over portions of Central and Northern Luzon, Occidental Mindoro, Antique, Masbate, and Sorsogon;
Low over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 150mm

Low in most parts of the country.

Probability to Exceed 200mm

Low in most parts of the country.

Initial Condition: September 28, 2023
Week Validity: Oct 04-10, 2023


Average to cooler than average surface air temperature will likely be experience in most parts of the country except in some areas in central Luzon, Davao Region, Maguindanao & Sultan Kudarat were slightly warmer to warmer than average temperature is expected.

Initial Condition: September 28, 2023
Week Validity: Oct 04-10, 2023


Westerly to southwesterly windflow affecting Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. Northeasterly windflow affecting the rest of Luzon.



CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: September 24, 2023
Week Validity: Sep 25- Oct 01, 2023

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in northern Luzon where below normal rainfall is expected.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: September 24, 2023
Week Validity: Oct 02-08, 2023

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in Central & Southern Luzon, and Samar Provinces where below normal rainfall is expected.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Southern Luzon, Eastern Visayas and Mindanao while Zamboanga Peninsula and the rest of Luzon and Visayas will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Bicol Region, Visayas and some areas in western and central Mindanao while the rest of the will likely have above normal rainfall.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: September 24, 2023
Week Validity: Oct 9-22, 2023

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Visayas while Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in Bicol Region and Samar provinces where above normal rainfall is more likely.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Eastern Visayas where above normal rainfall is more likely.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: September 24, 2023
Week Validity: Sep 25- October 03, 2023

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in extreme northern Luzon where below normal rainfall is expected.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in Negros Island, Cebu, Bohol, and eastern Mindanao where below normal rainfall is expected.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in Panay Island, Cebu and eastern Mindanao where below normal rainfall is expected.

For Particulars, please contact:

MS. ANA LIZA S. SOLIS


Chief, Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)

Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD), DOST-PAGASA

Trunkline No.: (02)8284-0800 local 4920 and 4921

E-mail: asolis@pagasa.dost.gov.ph