PAGASA

Week 1 - Week 4
One-Month (running 10-day probalistic Forecast)

This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).

Probabilistic Forecast Map

The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast

Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.

Objectives:

Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.

GEFS
NCEP

WEEK 1
WEEK 2

Initial Condition: December 03, 2024

Week Validity: December 04 - 10, 2024

Increase of rainfall of 10-60mm is most likely in Northern and Central Luzon, Oriental Mindoro and parts of Visayas during the forecast period.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

•High to very high over most parts of the country

•Moderate to high over Ilocos Norte, Abra, Bataan, Pampanga, Bualcan, western part of CALABARZON, Occ. Mindoro, Antique and Negros Island.

Probability to Exceed 50mm

•High to very high over Batanes, Cagayan, Isabela, most of CAR, Catanduanes and Northern and Eastern Samar;

•Moderate to high over Abra, Benguet, the rest of Bicol Region, northern part of Panay Island and Negros Occidental, the rest of Eastern Visayas, Surigao Provinces and the central part of Zamboanga Peninsula;

•Low to moderate over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 100mm

•High to very high over Batanes and the eastern part Cagayan and Isabela;

•Moderate to high over the rest of Cagayan and Isabela and the eastern part of Apayao and Kalinga;

•Moderate to low over the rest of Eastern Luzon and Eastern Visayas; eastern section of Cagayan and Isabela;

•Low over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 150mm

•Moderate to high over portions of Cagayan and Isabela;

•Low over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 200mm

•Moderate to high over portions of Cagayan and Isabela;

•Low over the rest of the country.

Initial Condition: December 03, 2024

Week Validity: December 04 - 10, 2024

Warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country.

Initial Condition: December 03, 2024

Week Validity: December 04 - 10, 2024

Northeast Monsoon affecting Northern Luzon while Easterlies affecting the rest of the country during the forecast period

Initial Condition: December 03, 2024

Week Validity: December 11 - 17, 2024

Increase of Rainfall of 20-80mm is most likely in most parts of the country except the west and central parts of Northern Luzon and most of Central Luzon during the forecast period.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

•High to very high over most parts of Eastern Luzon, Palawan, Visayas and Mindanao;

•Moderate to high over Apayao, eastern part of Ilocos Norte, Rizal, NCR, Batangas, the rest of MIMAROPA and Antique;

•Low over the rest of Luzon.

Probability to Exceed 50mm

•High to very high over the eastern part of Bicol Region, Aklan, Capiz, Samar Provinces and most of Eastern Mindanao;

•Moderate to high over Batanes, northern part of Apayao, Cagayan, the eastern part of Isabela, and the rest of Southern Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao;

•Low over the rest of Luzon.

Probability to Exceed 100mm

•Moderate to high over Bicol Region, Samar Provinces, Surigao Provinces and Davao Oriental;

•Low to moderate over the rest of Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao;

•Low over the rest of Luzon.

Probability to Exceed 150mm

•Low to moderate over Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas;

•Low over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 200mm

•Low across the country.

Initial Condition: December 03, 2024

Week Validity: December 11 - 17, 2024

Near average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country except in Masbate, northern part of Palawan, Negros Occidental and Cebu where slightly warmer than average surface air temperature will be likely

Initial Condition: December 03, 2024

Week Validity: December 11 - 17, 2024

Northeast Monsoon will likely affect Northern and Central Luzon while Easterlies will likely affect the rest of the country during the forecast period

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: November 28, 2024

Week Validity: Nov 29- Dec 05, 2024

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in northern Luzon where below normal rainfall is more likely.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Visayas while some areas in northern and southern Luzon and most parts of Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Panay island while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: November 28, 2024

Week Validity: Dec 06-12, 2024

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in southern part of Northern Luzon, Bicol Region, Visayas, and Lanao provinces while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in Cagayan Valley, Bicol Region, Visayas, and Bukidnon where below normal rainfall is more likely.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: November 28, 2024

Week Validity: Dec 13-26, 2024

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Northern and Central Luzon, Mindoro, southern Palawan, Eastern and Central Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, northern and eastern Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Northern and Central Luzon, Mindoro,, Eastern Visayas, and Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall.

10 Days

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: November 28, 2024

Week Validity: Nov 29- Dec 07, 2024

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in northern Luzon where below normal rainfall is more likely.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Northern and Central Luzon, Mindoro, and some areas in Caraga Region while some areas in southern Luzon, Bicol Region, and most parts of Visayas and Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Northern and Central Luzon, Panay island and northern part of Negros Island while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall.