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This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
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This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
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This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).
Probabilistic Forecast Map
The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast
Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.
Objectives:
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Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
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Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
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Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.
Initial Condition: September 27, 2022
Week Validity: Sep 28- Oct 04, 2022
Increase of rainfall of more than 100mm is expected in most parts of Ilocos and Cordillera Region and 20-60mm for the rest of the country except in some areas in Southern Luzon, Central Visayas and southern Mindanao(20-60mm increase of rainfall) during the forecast period.
High probability of rainfall to exceed 25mm in most parts of the country except in Ilocos Norte, Apayao and Cagayan during the forecast period.
High probability of rainfall to exceed 50mm in most parts of the country except Ilocos Norte, Apayao, Cagayan, Isabela, Kalinga, Mt. Province and Abra during the forecast period.
Low probability of rainfall to exceed 100mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.
Low probability of rainfall to exceed 150mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.
Low probability of rainfall to exceed 200mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.
Initial Condition: September 27, 2022
Week Validity: Sep 28- Oct 04, 2022
Near to slightly warmer than average surface air temperature will likely experience in most parts of Luzon, eastern Visayas and Western Mindanao while slightly cooler to cooler than average temperature for the rest of the country during the forecast period.
Initial Condition: September 27, 2022
Week Validity: Sep 28- Oct 04, 2022
Easterlies affecting most parts of the country during the forecast period.
Initial Condition: September 27, 2022
Week Validity: Oct 05-11, 2022
Rainfall deficit of 40-100mm is expected in most parts of Luzon while 40-80mm increase of rainfall is more likely in Palawan and most of Visayas and Mindanao during he forecast period.
High probability of rainfall to exceed 25mm in most parts of the country except Ilocos Norte and some areas in Central and Southern Luzon during the forecast period.
High probability of rainfall to exceed 50mm in most parts of Catanduanes, Bohol, Palawan, Samar provinces, western Visayas and Mindanao while less probability for the rest of the country during the forecast period.
Low probability of rainfall to exceed 100mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.
Low probability of rainfall to exceed 150mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.
Low probability of rainfall to exceed 200mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.
Initial Condition: September 27, 2022
Week Validity: Oct 05-11, 2022
Near to cooler than average surface air temperature will likely experience in most parts of the country except in Central Luzon Maguindanao and Sultan Kudarat where slightly warmer to warmer than average temperature is expected during the forecast period.
Initial Condition: September 27, 2022
Week Validity: Oct 05-11, 2022
Northeasterly wind affecting Extreme Northern Luzon; Easterlies affecting most parts of the country during the forecast period.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: September 25, 2022
Week Validity: Sep 26-Oct 02, 2022
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in Northern & Central Luzon and most parts of Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely receive below normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with patches of below normal in Panay Island, Cebu and Bohol.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: September 25, 2022
Week Validity: Oct 03-09, 2022
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Northern Luzon and some areas in Central Luzon and northern Mindanao.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Northern & Central Luzon.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: September 25, 2022
Week Validity: Oct 10-23, 2022
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in Northern & Central Luzon and most parts of Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely receive below normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in eastern parts of Visayas and Mindanao.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in eastern Mindanao and patches of below normal in Visayas.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: September 25, 2022
Week Validity: Sep 26- Oct 04, 2022
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in Northern & Central Luzon and most parts of Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely receive below normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with patches of below normal in southern Luzon and Visayas.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Panay Island and Zamboanga Peninsula while the rest of the country will likely receive above normal rainfall.
Prepared by:
CAD - CLIMPS
For inquiries, please contact
Ms. Ana Liza Solis
Chief, Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)
(02)8284-0800 Loc. 906