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This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
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This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
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This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).
Probabilistic Forecast Map
The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast
Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.
Objectives:
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Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
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Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
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Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.
Initial Condition: May 24, 2022
Week Validity: May 25-31, 2022
Rainfall deficit of more than 100mm is expected in Cordillera Region and 20-80mm in Samar Provinces and Northern Mindanao during the forecast period .
High probability of rainfall to exceed 25mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.
High probability of rainfall to exceed 50mm in most parts of Northern and Central Luzon, Mindoro provinces, Western Visayas and most parts of Mindanao while less likely for the rest of the country during the forecast period.
Low probability of rainfall to exceed 100mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.
Low probability of rainfall to exceed 150mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.
Low probability of rainfall to exceed 200mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.
Initial Condition: May 24, 2022
Week Validity: May 25-31, 2022
Cooler than average surface air temperature will likely experience in most parts of Visayas and Mindanao while average to slightly warmer temperature in Luzon (except Cagayan) during the forecast period.
Initial Condition: May 24, 2022
Week Validity: May 25-31, 2022
Southwest Monsoon is forecasted to affect most parts of Western Luzon and Western Visayas while Easterlies affecting the Eastern sections of the country during the forecast period
Initial Condition: May 24, 2022
Week Validity: Jun 01-07, 2022
Increase of rainfall of more than 40-100mm in most parts of Luzon (except Isabela) while rainfall deficit of 40-80mm in Cordillera Region and most parts of Visayas and Mindanao during the forecast period .
High probability of rainfall to exceed 25mm in most parts of the country except Palawan, Leyte provinces and Central Visayas during the forecast period.
High probability of rainfall to exceed 50mm in most parts of Northern and Central Luzon and Mindoro Occidental while less likely for the rest of the county during the forecast period.
Increase of rainfall of more than 40-100mm in most parts of Luzon (except Isabela) while rainfall deficit of 40-80mm in Cordillera Region and most parts of Visayas and Mindanao during the forecast period .
High probability of rainfall to exceed 25mm in most parts of the country except Palawan, Leyte provinces and Central Visayas during the forecast period.
High probability of rainfall to exceed 50mm in most parts of Northern and Central Luzon and Mindoro Occidental while less likely for the rest of the county during the forecast period.
Initial Condition: May 24, 2022
Week Validity: Jun 01-07, 2022
Cooler than average surface air temperature will likely experience in most parts of the country except Davao Region, Maguindanao and Sultan Kudarat during the forecast period.
Initial Condition: May 24, 2022
Week Validity: Jun 01-07, 2022
Southwest Monsoon is forecasted to affect most parts of Luzon and Western Visayas while Easterlies affecting the rest of the country during the forecast period
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: May 22, 2022
Week Validity: May 23-29, 2022
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in central parts of Luzon where above normal rainfall is more likely.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in central parts of Luzon where above normal rainfall is more likely.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in central parts of Luzon, Mindoro and Bicol Region where above normal rainfall is more likely.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with some patches of below normal rainfall in Luzon.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: May 22, 2022
Week Validity: May 30- Jun 05, 2022
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in northern Luzon, Mindoro and most parts of Visayas while the rest of the country will likely receive below normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts the country is expected.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts the country is expected.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: May 22, 2022
Week Validity: Jun 06-19, 2022
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts the country is expected.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts the country except in northern Luzon and patches of below normal in Bicol Region, eastern Visayas and Mindanao.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts the country except in northern Luzon and patches of below normal in Bicol Region, eastern Visayas and Mindanao.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: May 22, 2022
Week Validity: May 23-31, 2022
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with some patches of above normal rainfall in Luzon and southern Mindanao.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Visayas while Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall (except with some patches of below normal).
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Visayas while Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall (except with some patches of below normal).
Prepared by:
CAD - CLIMPS
For inquiries, please contact
Ms. Ana Liza Solis
Chief, Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)
(02)8284-0800 Loc. 906