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This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
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This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
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This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).
Probabilistic Forecast Map
The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast
Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.
Objectives:
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Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
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Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
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Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.
Initial Condition: January 26, 2023
Week Validity: Jan 27- Feb 02, 2023
Increase of rainfall of 40 - 80mm in Bicol region, most of Visayas while 20-60mm rainfall deficit in CAR, Cagayan Valley and northern Mindanao during the forecast period.
Very high probability of rainfall to exceed 25mm in the eastern section of Cagayan and Isabela, Quezon, Bicol region, MIMAROPA and most parts of Visayas and Mindanao while less likely for the rest of Luzon during the forecast period.
Very high probability of rainfall to exceed 50mm in most parts of Bicol region, Eastern and Central Visayas most parts of Visayas, northern portion of Western Visayas and most parts of Eastern Mindanao while less likely for the rest of the country during the forecast period.
High probability of rainfall to exceed 100mm in some areas in Bicol Region, Northern & Eastern Samar and Southern Leyte while less likely for the rest of the country during the forecast period.
Low probability of rainfall to exceed 150mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.
Low probability of rainfall to exceed 200mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.
Initial Condition: January 26, 2023
Week Validity: Jan 27- Feb 02, 2023
Average to cooler than average surface air temperature will likely experience in most parts of the country except Misamis Oriental and Maguindanao during the forecast period.
Initial Condition: January 26, 2023
Week Validity: Jan 27- Feb 02, 2023
Northeast Monsoon is forecasted to affect most parts of Luzon while Easterlies is forecasted to affect Visayas and Mindanao during the forecast period.
Initial Condition: January 26, 2023
Week Validity: Feb 03-09, 2023
Rainfall deficit of 20 – 60mm is expected in most parts of the country, up to 80mm decrease in Bukidnon and Lanao provinces during the forecast period.
Very high probability of rainfall to exceed 25mm in the eastern section of Cagayan and Isabela, some parts of Bicol region, most parts of Eastern and Central Visayas, northern portion of Western Visayas and most parts of Mindanao while less likely for the rest of the country during the forecast period.
High probability of rainfall to exceed 50mm in Northern and Eastern Samar and most parts of Eastern Mindanao while less likely for the rest of the country during the forecast period.
Low probability of rainfall to exceed 100mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.
Low probability of rainfall to exceed 150mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.
Low probability of rainfall to exceed 200mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.
Initial Condition: January 26, 2023
Week Validity: Feb 03-09, 2023
Average to cooler than average surface air temperature will likely experience in most parts of the country except Isabela and Quirino during the forecast period.
Initial Condition: January 26, 2023
Week Validity: Feb 03-09, 2023
Easterlies is forecasted to affect most parts of the country during the forecast period.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: January 23, 2023
Week Validity: Jan 24-30, 2022
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Visayas while most of Mindanao and some areas in western Luzon will likely receive above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in northern Luzon, some areas in southern Luzon, Bicol Region and most of Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely receive above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in some areas in southern Luzon, Bicol Region, eastern Visayas and most of northeastern and southern Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely receive above normal rainfall.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: January 23, 2023
Week Validity: Jan 31-Feb 01, 2022
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of northern and southern Luzon and Samar provinces while the rest of the country will likely receive above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in Panay Island and western Mindanao.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: January 23, 2023
Week Validity: Feb 02-15, 2022
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with some patches of below normal in central Visayas and southern Mindanao.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: January 23, 2023
Week Validity: Jan 24- Feb 01, 2023
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Visayas while most of Mindanao and some areas in western Luzon will likely receive above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in northern Luzon, some areas in southern Luzon, Bicol Region and most of Mindanao (except Zamboanga Peninsula, Misamis Occ. And Lanao del Norte) while the rest of the country will likely receive above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in some areas in northern & southern Luzon, Bicol Region, eastern Visayas and most of western and central Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely receive above normal rainfall.
Prepared by:
CAD - CLIMPS
For inquiries, please contact
Ms. Ana Liza Solis
Chief, Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)
(02)8284-0800 Loc. 906