PAGASA

Week 1 - Week 4
One-Month (running 10-day probalistic Forecast)

This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).

Probabilistic Forecast Map

The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast

Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.

Objectives:

Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.

GEFS
NCEP

WEEK 1
WEEK 2

Initial Condition: July 13, 2025

Week Validity: Jul 14-20, 2025

Increase of rainfall of 20-90mm is expected in most parts of Luzon and Visayas while 10-40mm rainfall deficit is likely in Mindanao.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

•High to very high over most parts of the country;

•Moderate to high over eastern Mindanao.

•

Probability to Exceed 50mm

•High to very high over most of Luzon, Western Visayas, NIR, and the northern part of Eastern Visayas;

•Moderate to high over Southern Palawan, Quezon, the rest of Visayas, and the western part of Mindanao;

•Low to moderate over the rest of Mindanao.

•

Probability to Exceed 100mm

•Moderate to high over most of Luzon, Western Visayas, Negros Occidental, and the northern portion of Eastern Visayas;

•Low to moderate over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 150mm

•Moderate to high over Aklan, Antique, and the western section of Luzon (except Southern Palawan);

•Low to moderate over the rest of Luzon and Visayas;

•Low over Mindanao.

Probability to Exceed 200mm

•Moderate to high over the western section of Luzon except for Southern Palawan;

•Low over the rest of the country.

Initial Condition: July 13, 2025

Week Validity: Jul 14-20, 2025

Near average to slightly warmer surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country.

Initial Condition: July 13, 2025

Week Validity: Jul 14-20, 2025

SW Monsoon will likely affect the western sections of Luzon. Westerlies affecting Visayas and Mindanao. While Easterlies affecting the rest of Luzon.

Initial Condition: July 13, 2025

Week Validity: Jul 21-27, 2025

Increase of rainfall of more than 100mm is expected in most parts of Luzon; 20-80mm in Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, and western Visayas while 20-60mm rainfall deficit is expected for the rest of Visayas and Mindanao.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

•High to very high over most parts of Luzon and western Panay;

•Moderate to high over the rest of Visayas and western Mindanao

•Low to moderate over the rest of Mindanao;

Probability to Exceed 50mm

•High to very high over Ilocos Region, CAR, Central Luzon, NCR, CALABARZON, and MIMAROPA, except for Southern Palawan;

•Moderate to high over the rest of Luzon, Visayas, and some of the westernmost area of Mindanao;

•Low to moderate over the rest of Mindanao;

•

Probability to Exceed 100mm

•Moderate to high over the western sections of Luzon (except for Palawan) and Visayas;

•Low to moderate over the rest of Luzon and Visayas;

•Low over Mindanao.

•

Probability to Exceed 150mm

•Moderate to high over the western section of Luzon (except for Palawan);

•Low to moderate over Panay; the rest of Luzon and Visayas;

•Low over the rest of Visayas and Mindanao.

Probability to Exceed 200mm

•Moderate to high over the western section of Luzon (except for Palawan);

•Low to moderate over the rest of Luzon and Visayas;

•Low over Mindanao.

Initial Condition: July 13, 2025

Week Validity: Jul 21-27, 2025

Slightly warmer to warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of Visayas and Mindanao while near average surface air temperature is expected over Luzon.

Initial Condition: July 13, 2025

Week Validity: Jul 21-27, 2025

Enhance SW Monsoon will likely affect most parts of the country

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: Jul 10, 2025

Week Validity: July 11-17, 2025

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Apayao, Cagayan Valley, and eastern parts of central Luzon where below normal rainfall is expected.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in the western parts of northern and central Luzon, Mindoro, and Panay Island where above normal rainfall is expected.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in northern Luzon, and western parts of central Luzon where above normal rainfall is expected.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: Jul 10, 2025

Week Validity: Jul 18-24, 2025

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in northern Luzon where below normal rainfall is expected.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, western parts of Visayas and Mindanao, and Caraga Region while Apayao, western parts of central Luzon and the rest of Visayas and Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Apayao, Cagayan, Bicol Region, Samar provinces, and eastern parts of Mindanao where above normal rainfall is expected.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: Jul 10, 2025

Week Validity: Jul 25- Aug 07, 2025

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall most parts of the country except in some areas in Leyte province, and central and western Visayas where below normal rainfall is expected.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Visayas, and Zamboanga Peninsula while some areas in central Luzon, Panay Island and most parts of Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.

10 Days

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: Jul 10, 2025

Week Validity: July 11-19, 2025

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in CAR, Cagayan, and Isabela where below normal rainfall is expected.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in western and central Luzon, Mindoro, and Panay Island where above normal rainfall is expected.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of northern and central Luzon, while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall.