PAGASA

Week 1 - Week 4
One-Month (running 10-day probalistic Forecast)

This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).

Probabilistic Forecast Map

The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast

Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.

Objectives:

Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.

GEFS
NCEP

WEEK 1
WEEK 2

Initial Condition: February 12, 2026

Week Validity: February 13 -19, 2026

Rainfall deficit of 20-60mm is expected in most parts of the country except in the southern part of Northern Luzon and the northern part of Central Luzon where 20-40mm increase in rainfall is likely.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

•High to very high over the eastern sections of Eastern Luzon and Bicol Region, Capiz, Samar Provinces and Eastern Mindanao;

•Moderate to high over the rest of Northern Luzon. Quezon and Bicol region, the rest of , , CAR, the rest of southern Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao

•Low over the rest of Luzon.

Probability to Exceed 50mm

•Moderate to high over Capiz and the eastern sections of Southern Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao;

•Low over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 100mm

•Low across the country;

Probability to Exceed 150mm

•Low across the country;

Probability to Exceed 200mm

•Low across the country;

Initial Condition: February 12, 2026

Week Validity: February 13 -19, 2026

Slightly warmer to warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experience in most parts of the country.

Initial Condition: February 12, 2026

Week Validity: February 13 -19, 2026

Northeast Monsoon affecting Extreme Northern Luzon. While Easterlies are expected to affect the rest of the country.

Initial Condition: February 12, 2026

Week Validity: February 20 -26, 2026

Rainfall deficit of 20-40mm is expected in most parts of Luzon except Palawan while increase in rainfall of 20-80mm for the rest of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

•High to very high over Eastern Visayas, and most parts of Mindanao;

•Moderate to high over Batanes, Cagayan, Bicol Region, Palawan;

•Low over the rest of Luzon.

Probability to Exceed 50mm

•High to very high over the eastern section of Mindanao;

•Moderate to high over Capiz, Central and Eastern Visayas, and the rest of Mindanao;

•Low to moderate over Southern Luzon and the rest of Visayas;

•Low over the rest of Luzon.

Probability to Exceed 100mm

•Moderate to high over Eastern Samar and the eastern section of Mindanao;

•Low to moderate over the rest of Visayas and Mindanao

•Low over Luzon.

Probability to Exceed 150mm

•Low to moderate over Caraga;

•Low over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 200mm

•Low across the country

Initial Condition: February 12, 2026

Week Validity: February 20 -26, 2026

Near to cooler than average surface air temperature will likely be experience in most parts of the country.

Initial Condition: February 12, 2026

Week Validity: February 20 -26, 2026

Northeast Monsoon will likely affect Eastern Luzon. Easterlies to affect the rest of the country.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: February 11, 2026

Week Validity: Feb 12-18, 2026

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in Negros Island and Central Visayas where below normal rainfall is expected.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in western Mindanao where below normal rainfall is expected.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in western Mindanao and some areas in western and central Visayas where below normal rainfall is expected.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: February 11, 2026

Week Validity: Feb 19-25, 2026

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Mindanao while Marinduque, Masbate, most parts of Visayas, and northern Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of in Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao, and some areas in Ilocos Norte & Sur, Apayao, Mt. province, and Ifugao while the rest of Luzon will likely have above normal rainfall.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: February 11, 2026

Week Validity: Feb 26- Mar 11, 2026

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Visayas, and some areas in Zamboanga Peninsula and Caraga Region while most of Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Ilocos Norte, Apayao, Cagayan, Isabela, Kalinga, and Mt. Province where above normal rainfall is expected.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon (except in some areas in northern Luzon, Bicol Region, and Mindoro) while most parts of Visayas and Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.

10 Days

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: February 11, 2026

Week Validity: Feb 12-20, 2026

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in Negros Island and Central Visayas where below normal rainfall is expected.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Zamboanga Peninsula where below normal rainfall is expected.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.

GEFS Archive