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This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
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This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
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This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).
Probabilistic Forecast Map
The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast
Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.
Objectives:
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Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
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Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
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Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.
Initial Condition: November 06, 2025
Week Validity: Nov 07-13, 2025
Increase in rainfall of up to 100mm is expected in most parts of Northern and Central Luzon while 20-60mm rainfall deficit is expected over the rest of the country.
Probability to Exceed 25mm
Probability to Exceed 100mm
Probability to Exceed 150mm
Probability to Exceed 200mm
Initial Condition: November 06, 2025
Week Validity: Nov 07-13, 2025
Slightly warmer to warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country.
Initial Condition: November 06, 2025
Week Validity: Nov 07-13, 2025
Northeast Monsoon affecting Extreme Northern Luzon and Easterlies affecting the rest of the country.
A Cyclonic Circulation is forecasted to affect Luzon
Initial Condition: November 06, 2025
Week Validity: Nov 14-20, 2025
Increase in rainfall of 40-100mm is expected in most parts of Northern and Central Luzon; and 20-60mm of rainfall over the rest of Luzon and Visayas while 10-20mm rainfall deficit in Mindanao.
Probability to Exceed 25mm
Probability to Exceed 50mm
Probability to Exceed 100mm
Probability to Exceed 150mm
Probability to Exceed 200mm
Initial Condition: November 06, 2025
Week Validity: Nov 14-20, 2025
Near to slightly warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country.
Initial Condition: November 06, 2025
Week Validity: Nov 14-20, 2025
Northeast Monsoon affecting Extreme Northern Luzon and Easterlies affecting the rest of the country.
A Cyclonic Circulation is forecasted to affect Luzon
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: November 02, 2025
Week Validity: Nov 03-09, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Samar provinces and Sarangani while Mindoro, Palawan, Masbate, most parts of Visayas and Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in CALABARZON, Marinduque, and Bicol Region where below normal rainfall is expected.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of northern Luzon, some areas in central Luzon, Leyte, and most parts of Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: November 02, 2025
Week Validity: Nov 10-16, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Samar provinces and Sarangani while Mindoro, Palawan, Masbate, most parts of Visayas and Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, and Mindanao while most parts of Visayas and Bicol Region will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, western Visayas and Mindanao while Bicol Region, the rest of Visayas, northeastern Mindanao and South Cotabato will likely have above normal rainfall.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: November 01, 2025
Week Validity: Nov 16-29, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of northern, eastern and southern Luzon, Samar provinces, and Sarangani while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of northern and central Luzon, Mindoro, Palawan, Camarines Sur, Leyte provinces, western and central Visayas, some areas in Misamis Oriental & Bukidnon while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Cagayan, Isabela, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Marinduque, Samar provinces, and most parts of Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: November 01, 2025
Week Validity: Nov 02-10, 2025
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Samar provinces and Sarangani while Mindoro, Palawan, Masbate, most parts of Visayas and Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of northern, and southern Luzon, Visayas, and western Mindanao while the rest of Luzon, Bohol, Zamboanga Peninsula and eastern Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Panay Island, northern Leyte, and western Mindanao while the rest of Luzon, & Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula and eastern Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.