Sub Seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Forecast
  • This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;

  • This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html

  • This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).

Probabilistic Forecast Map

The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast

Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.

Objectives:

  • Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.

  • Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.

  • Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.



Initial Condition: April 16, 2024
Week Validity: April 17 - 23, 2024


Rainfall deficit of 20-80mm in most parts of the country.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

Moderate to High over the western portion of Mindanao, Surigao del Sur and Davao Oriental;
Low to moderate over the rest of Mindanao
Low over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 50mm

Low to moderate over Mindanao.
Low over the rest of the country.



Probability to Exceed 100mm

Low across the country.

Probability to Exceed 150mm

Low across the country.

Probability to Exceed 200mm

Low across the country.

Initial Condition: April 16, 2024
Week Validity: April 17 - 23, 2024


Near to warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country.

Initial Condition: April 16, 2024
Week Validity: April 17 - 23, 2024


Easterlies continuously affect most parts of the country. Expect dry and warm days during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: April 16, 2024
Week Validity: April 24 - 30, 2024


Rainfall deficit of 20-80mm in most parts of the country.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

Moderate to high over most of CAR, Cagayan Valley and Mindanao;
Low to moderate over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 50mm

Moderate to high over most of Bukidnon, Lanao provinces, and Zamboanga del Sur;
Low to moderate over Northern Luzon and Mindanao
Low over the rest of the country.



Probability to Exceed 100mm

Low across the country.

Probability to Exceed 150mm

Low across the country.

Probability to Exceed 200mm

Low across the country.

Initial Condition: April 16, 2024
Week Validity: April 24 - 30, 2024


Near to warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country.

Initial Condition: April 16, 2024
Week Validity: April 24 - 30, 2024


Easterlies will likely prevail in most parts of the country. Expect dry and warm days during the forecast period.



CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: April 11, 2024
Week Validity: Apr 12-18, 2024

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in extreme northern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao while the rest of Luzon will likely have below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, and eastern Visayas while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in extreme northern Luzon, Bicol Region, Visayas and some areas in western Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: April 11, 2024
Week Validity: Apr 19-25, 2024

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in extreme northern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao while the rest of Luzon will likely have below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in extreme northern Luzon, Bicol Region, Visayas and Mindanao while the rest of Luzon will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: April 11, 2024
Week Validity: Apr 26- May 09, 2024

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of central and southern Luzon, Panay Island, Zamboanga Peninsula and Caraga Region while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of central and southern Luzon, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula and Caraga Region while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: April 11, 2024
Week Validity: Apr 12-20, 2024

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in extreme northern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao while the rest of Luzon will likely have below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Visayas and western Mindanao while Isabela and some areas in southern Luzon and the rest of Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in extreme northern Luzon, Bicol Region, Visayas and most parts of Mindanao while the rest of Luzon, Zamboanga Peninsula and some areas in eastern Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.

For Particulars, please contact:

MS. ANA LIZA S. SOLIS


Chief, Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)

Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD), DOST-PAGASA

Trunkline No.: (02)8284-0800 local 4920 and 4921

E-mail: asolis@pagasa.dost.gov.ph