Sub Seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Forecast
  • This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;

  • This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html

  • This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).

Probabilistic Forecast Map

The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast

Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.

Objectives:

  • Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.

  • Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.

  • Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.



Initial Condition: September 26, 2021
Week Validity: Sep 27- Oct 03, 2021


Rainfall deficit of 40-150mm is expected in most parts of the country (especially in Cordillera Region & Mindoro) during the forecast period.

High probability of rainfall to exceed 25mm in most parts of the country except in Ilocos Norte, Apayao & Cagayan during the forecast period.

Less probability of rainfall to exceed 50mm in most parts of the country except in Kalinga, Mt. Province, eastern Panay & Bukidnon during the forecast period.



Less probability of rainfall to exceed 100mm in most parts of the country is expected during the forecast period.

Less probability of rainfall to exceed 150mm in most parts of the country is expected during the forecast period.

Less probability of rainfall to exceed 200mm in most parts of the country is expected during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: September 26, 2021
Week Validity: Sep 27- Oct 03, 2021


Slightly warmer to warmer than average surface air temperature will likely experience in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: September 26, 2021
Week Validity: Sep 27- Oct 03, 2021


Upper and low level Divergence suggest likelihood of light precipitation in most parts of Luzon. Easterlies affecting the rest of the country attributing to light and moderate rains due to thunderstorms during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: September 26, 2021
Week Validity: Oct 04-10, 2021


Rainfall deficit of 40-100mm is expected in most parts of the country except in the western section of Mindanao where there is 40-80mm. increase during the forecast period.

High probability of rainfall to exceed 25mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period

High probability of rainfall to exceed 50mm in most parts of the country except in Ilocos Norte & eastern section of Mindanao during the forecast period.



Less probability of rainfall to exceed 100mm in most parts of the country is expected during the forecast period.

Less probability of rainfall to exceed 150mm in most parts of the country is expected during the forecast period.

Less probability of rainfall to exceed 200mm in most parts of the country is expected during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: September 26, 2021
Week Validity: Oct 04-10, 2021


Average to slightly cooler than average surface air temperature will likely experience in most parts of the country except in eastern Isabela, Quirino, Central Luzon, Maguindanao, Sultan Kudarat and southeastern Mindanao where slightly warmer to warmer than average temperature is expected.

Initial Condition: September 26, 2021
Week Validity: Oct 04-10, 2021


Upper and low level Divergence suggest high likelihood of precipitation in most parts of the country. Southwest monsoon affecting the western section of the country while Easterlies affecting the rest of the country attributing to light and moderate rains due to thunderstorms during the forecast.



CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: September 19, 2021
Week Validity: Sep 20-26, 2021

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with some patches of below normal rainfall in Central Luzon.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with some patches of below normal rainfall in Central Luzon.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in northern half of Luzon, western Visayas & northern & western Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely receive below normal rainfall.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: September 19, 2021
Week Validity: Sep 27-Oct 03, 2021

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in Southern Luzon and most parts of Visayas and Mindanao while the rest of Luzon will likely receive above normal rainfall.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: September 19, 2021
Week Validity: Oct 04-17, 2021

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon (except northwestern part) and southern Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely receive above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon (except northwestern part) and southern Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely receive above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of eastern Luzon, western Visayas & Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely receive above normal rainfall.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: September 19, 2021
Week Validity: Sep 20-28, 2021

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in western parts of Luzon and some patches of below normal rainfall in eastern Mindanao.

 
Prepared by:
CAD - CLIMPS
For inquiries, please contact
Ms. Ana Liza Solis
Chief, Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)
(02)8284-0800 Loc. 906