PAGASA

Week 1 - Week 4
One-Month (running 10-day probalistic Forecast)

This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).

Probabilistic Forecast Map

The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast

Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.

Objectives:

Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.

GEFS
NCEP

WEEK 1
WEEK 2

Initial Condition: May 17, 2026

Week Validity: May 18-24, 2026

Precipitation Anomaly

•20--60mm Rainfall deficit is expected in most parts of Luzon

•10--20mm Rainfall deficit is expected in most parts of Visayas and northeastern Mindanao

•20-70mm Increase of rainfall for the rest of Mindanao.

•

Probability to Exceed 25mm

•High to very high over CAR, Nueva Vizcaya, and Mindanao;

•Moderate to high over the rest of Northern Luzon, Central Luzon, MIMAROPA, Visayas;

•Low to moderate over the rest of Luzon.

Probability to Exceed 50 mm

•High to very high over portions of CAR, most of Zamboanga Peninsula, Bukidnon, BARMM, SOCCSKSARGEN and Davao del Norte;

•Moderate to high over the rest of CAR, Nueva Vizcaya, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao and Davao region;

•Low to moderate over NIR and the rest of Mindanao;

•Low over the rest of the rest of Luzon and Visayas.

Probability to Exceed 100mm

•Moderate to high over Zamboanga del Sur, Bukidnon, Lanao del Sur, and SOCCSKSRAGEN;

•Low over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 150mm

•Low across the country.

Probability to Exceed 200mm

•Low across the country.

Initial Condition: May 17, 2026

Week Validity: May 18-24, 2026

2m Temperature Forecast (oC) Week 1: May 18-24, 2026

•Warmer-than-usual surroundings will be felt over Northern and Central Luzon, NCR, and most of CALABARZON;

•A slightly warmer to warmer-than-usual environment will be experienced over the rest of the country.

Initial Condition: May 17, 2026

Week Validity: May 18-24, 2026

•South-westerlies is forecasted to affect Palawan.

•Easterlies affecting most parts of the country.

Initial Condition: May 17, 2026

Week Validity: May 25-31, 2026

Precipitation Anomaly

•20--80mm Rainfall deficit is expected in most parts of Northern and Central Luzon

•20-80mm Increase of rainfall for the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

•High to very high over most of the country;

•Moderate to high over the northernmost portion of Northern Luzon.

Probability to Exceed 50 mm

•High to very high over Palawan, and the western sections of Western Visayas and NIR, BARMM, and Zamboanga Peninsula;

•Moderate to high over the rest of Mindanao, Central and Southern Luzon, NCR, and most of Northern Luzon;

•Low to moderate over Cagayan, Abra, Ilocos Norte and Batanes.

Probability to Exceed 100mm

•Moderate to high over the western section of Southern Luzon, Visayas at Mindanao;

•Low to moderate over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 150mm

•Low to moderate over the western section of Southern Luzon, Visayas at Mindanao;

•Low over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 200mm

•Low across the country

Initial Condition: May 17, 2026

Week Validity: May 25-31, 2026

2m Temperature Forecast (oC) Week 2: May 25-31, 2026

• Warmer-than-usual surroundings will be felt over Northern and Central Luzon, NCR, and most of CALABARZON;

•Near to slightly warmer-than-usual ambient temperature over the rest of the country.

Initial Condition: May 17, 2026

Week Validity: May 25-31, 2026

•Westerly to south-westerlies is forecasted to affect Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao;

•Easterlies will likely affect the rest of Luzon

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: May 16, 2026

Week Validity: May 17-23, 2026

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in La Union, Benguet, Mindoro, Cebu, Bohol, and southwestern Mindanao where above normal rainfall is expected.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: May 16, 2026

Week Validity: May 24-30, 2026

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Central Luzon, Camarines Sur, Albay, and Sorsogon where above normal rainfall is expected.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with some patches of above normal rainfall in Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan, and Sorsogon.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: May 16, 2026

Week Validity: May 31- Jun 13, 2026

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country.

10 Days

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: May 16, 2026

Week Validity: May 16-25, 2026

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in La Union, Pangasinan, , Mindoro, Cebu, Bohol, and southwestern Mindanao where above normal rainfall is expected.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with some patches of above normal rainfall in southwestern Mindanao and Zamboanga.

GEFS Archive