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This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
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This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
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This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).
Probabilistic Forecast Map
The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast
Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.
Objectives:
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Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
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Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
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Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.
Initial Condition: September 28, 2023
Week Validity: Sep 29- Oct 05, 2023
Rainfall deficit of 20-100mm is expected in most parts of the country except in Palawan & Davao Oriental where there is 10-30mm increase of rainfall
Probability to Exceed 25mm
Probability to Exceed 50mm
Probability to Exceed 100mm
Probability to Exceed 150mm
Probability to Exceed 200mm
Initial Condition: September 28, 2023
Week Validity: Sep 29- Oct 05, 2023
Average to warmer than average surface air temperature will likely experience in most parts of the country except in Cebu and Negros Island where slightly cooler temperature is expected.
Initial Condition: September 28, 2023
Week Validity: Sep 29- Oct 05, 2023
Westerly to southwesterly windflow affecting Visayas and Mindanao. Northeasterly windflow affecting Northern Luzon.
Initial Condition: September 28, 2023
Week Validity: Oct 04-10, 2023
Rainfall deficit of 20-60mm is expected in most parts of Visayas and Mindanao while 20-60mm increase of rainfall in Luzon.
Probability to Exceed 25mm
Probability to Exceed 50mm
Probability to Exceed 100mm
Probability to Exceed 150mm
Probability to Exceed 200mm
Initial Condition: September 28, 2023
Week Validity: Oct 04-10, 2023
Average to cooler than average surface air temperature will likely be experience in most parts of the country except in some areas in central Luzon, Davao Region, Maguindanao & Sultan Kudarat were slightly warmer to warmer than average temperature is expected.
Initial Condition: September 28, 2023
Week Validity: Oct 04-10, 2023
Westerly to southwesterly windflow affecting Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. Northeasterly windflow affecting the rest of Luzon.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: September 24, 2023
Week Validity: Sep 25- Oct 01, 2023
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in northern Luzon where below normal rainfall is expected.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: September 24, 2023
Week Validity: Oct 02-08, 2023
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in Central & Southern Luzon, and Samar Provinces where below normal rainfall is expected.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Southern Luzon, Eastern Visayas and Mindanao while Zamboanga Peninsula and the rest of Luzon and Visayas will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Bicol Region, Visayas and some areas in western and central Mindanao while the rest of the will likely have above normal rainfall.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: September 24, 2023
Week Validity: Oct 9-22, 2023
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Visayas while Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in Bicol Region and Samar provinces where above normal rainfall is more likely.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Eastern Visayas where above normal rainfall is more likely.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: September 24, 2023
Week Validity: Sep 25- October 03, 2023
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in extreme northern Luzon where below normal rainfall is expected.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in Negros Island, Cebu, Bohol, and eastern Mindanao where below normal rainfall is expected.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in Panay Island, Cebu and eastern Mindanao where below normal rainfall is expected.