PAGASA

Week 1 - Week 4
One-Month (running 10-day probalistic Forecast)

This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).

Probabilistic Forecast Map

The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast

Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.

Objectives:

Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.

GEFS
NCEP

WEEK 1
WEEK 2

Initial Condition: October 20, 2024

Week Validity: Oct 21-27, 2024

Increase of Rainfall of more than 100mm is likely in most parts of Luzon and Visayas; 20-80mm in Central Visayas and western Mindanao while Rainfall deficit of 20-50mm rainfall is expected for the rest of Mindanao.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

•High to very high over most parts of Luzon, Visayas, northern and western Mindanao and Agusan & Lanao del Norte.

•Moderate to high over the rest of Mindanao.

Probability to Exceed 50mm

•High to very high over Luzon, Visayas and Western Mindanao;

•Moderate to high over Misamis Oriental, Surigao del Norte, western part of Lanao Provinces and North Cotabato, southeastern part of Bukidnon and South Cotabato;

•Low over the rest of Mindanao.

Probability to Exceed 100mm

•Moderate to a high over most of Luzon, southern part of Palawan, Western and Eastern Visayas, NIR and the western sections of Lanao Provinces, Maguindanao and Sultan Kudarat;

•Low to moderate over the rest of Palawan and Zamboanga Peninsula;

•Low over Central Visayas and the rest of Mindanao.

Probability to Exceed 150mm

•Moderate to a high over most of Luzon, southern part of Palawan, Antique, western part of Iloilo and Negros Occidental and Samar Provinces;

•Low over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 200mm

•Moderate to a high over Northern Luzon, Zambales, Bataan, Bicol Region and Samar Provinces;

•Low to moderate over the rest of Luzon;

•Low over the rest of the country.

Initial Condition: October 20, 2024

Week Validity: Oct 21-27, 2024

Near to warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country.

Initial Condition: October 20, 2024

Week Validity: Oct 21-27, 2024

Easterly windflow affecting Northern Luzon, South to southwesterly windflow affecting the rest of the country.

Initial Condition: October 20, 2024

Week Validity: Oct 28- Nov 03, 2024

Increase of rainfall of 20-60mm is likely in most parts of Luzon and western Visayas while Rainfall deficit of 10-40mm rainfall is expected for the rest of Visayas and most parts of Mindanao.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

•High to very high over most parts of the country

Probability to Exceed 50mm

•Moderate to high over most parts of Luzon, Western Visayas, NIR, Bukidnon, and Lanao del Sur;

•Low to moderate over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 100mm

•Moderate to a high over most of Luzon, southern part of Palawan, Western and Eastern Visayas, NIR and the western sections of Lanao Provinces, Maguindanao and Sultan Kudarat;

•Low to moderate over the rest of Palawan and Zamboanga Peninsula;

•Low over Central Visayas and the rest of Mindanao.

Probability to Exceed 150mm

•Moderate to a high over most of Luzon, southern part of Palawan, Antique, western part of Iloilo and Negros Occidental and Samar Provinces;

•Low over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 200mm

•Moderate to a high over Northern Luzon, Zambales, Bataan, Bicol Region and Samar Provinces;

•Low to moderate over the rest of Luzon;

•Low over the rest of the country.

Initial Condition: October 20, 2024

Week Validity: Oct 28- Nov 03, 2024

Near to slightly warmer than average surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country.

Initial Condition: October 20, 2024

Week Validity: Oct 28- Nov 03, 2024

Northeasterly to easterly windflow is forecasted to affect Northern and Central Luzon. Westerly windflow will likely affect Visayas and Mindanao.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: October 17, 2024

Week Validity: Oct 25-31, 2024

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in Cagayan, Isabela, and Mindoro where below normal rainfall is more likely.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of northern and Central Luzon, Zamboanga Peninsula and Caraga Region while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of northern and Central Luzon while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: October 17, 2024

Week Validity: Oct 25-31, 2024

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Leyte provinces. -and western Visayas while extreme northern Luzon and the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Visayas while some areas in extreme northern Luzon and Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.

Rainfall

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: October 17, 2024

Week Validity: Nov 01-14, 2024

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Visayas while Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Northern and Central Luzon while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Northern and Central Luzon, Panay Island, and northern Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.

10 Days

CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: October 17, 2024

Week Validity: Oct 18-26, 2024

GCM

PCA

CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in Cagayan and Mindoro where below normal rainfall is more likely.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of northern and Central Luzon while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall.