Sub Seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Forecast
  • This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;

  • This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html

  • This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).

Probabilistic Forecast Map

The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast

Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.

Objectives:

  • Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.

  • Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.

  • Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.



Initial Condition: October 21, 2021
Week Validity: Oct 21-27 2021


Rainfall deficit of 20-40mm in northeastern Luzon & northern Mindanao while increase of rainfall of 20-40mm for the rest of the country during the forecast period.

High probability of rainfall to exceed 25mm in most parts of the country except in Ilocos Norte during the forecast period.

High probability of rainfall to exceed 50mm in Cagayan, most parts of Southern Luzon, Visayas and western parts of Mindanao including Bukidnon while less likely for the rest of the country during the forecast period.



Less probability of rainfall to exceed 100mm in most parts of the country is expected during the forecast period.

Less probability of rainfall to exceed 150mm in most parts of the country is expected during the forecast period.

Less probability of rainfall to exceed 200mm in most parts of the country is expected during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: October 21, 2021
Week Validity: Oct 21-27 2021


Generally average surface air temperature will likely experience in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: October 21, 2021
Week Validity: Oct 21-27 2021


Upper and low level Divergence suggest likelihood of precipitation in most parts of Southern Luzon, and most parts of Visayas and Mindanao. Northeasterly windflow affecting Northern-Extreme Northern Luzon while Easterlies affecting most parts of the country attributing to light to moderate rains due to thunderstorms during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: October 21, 2021
Week Validity: Oct 28-Nov 03, 2021


Rainfall deficit of 20-80mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

High probability of rainfall to exceed 25mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

Less probability of rainfall to exceed 50mm in most parts of the country except in Cagayan during the forecast period.



Less probability of rainfall to exceed 100mm in most parts of the country is expected during the forecast period.

Less probability of rainfall to exceed 150mm in most parts of the country is expected during the forecast period.

Less probability of rainfall to exceed 150mm in most parts of the country is expected during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: October 21, 2021
Week Validity: Oct 28-Nov 03, 2021


Average to slightly cooler than average surface air temperature will likely experience in most parts of the country is expected during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: October 21, 2021
Week Validity: Oct 28-Nov 03, 2021


Upper and low level Divergence suggest likelihood of light precipitation in most parts of Southern Luzon and Easterrn parts of Visayas and Mindanao. Northeasterly windflow affecting Northern-Extreme Northern Luzon while Easterlies affecting most parts of the country attributing to light to moderate rains due to thunderstorms during the forecast period.



CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: October 17, 2021
Week Validity: Oct 18-24, 2021

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in northern half of Luzon during the forecast period .


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: October 17, 2021
Week Validity: Oct 25-31, 2021

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with patches of below normal in Bicol Region & southern Mindanao during the forecast period .

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with patches of below normal in Bicol Region & southern Mindanao during the forecast period .

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, western Visayas and central Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely receive below normal rainfall during the forecast period.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: October 17, 2021
Week Validity: Nov 01-14, 2021

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with patches of below normal in Bicol Region & southern Mindanao during the forecast period .

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with patches of below normal in Bicol Region & southern Mindanao during the forecast period .

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and northern Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely receive below normal rainfall during the forecast period.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: October 17, 2021
Week Validity: Oct 14-22, 2021

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in northern half of Luzon where below normal rainfall is more likely.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in northern half of Luzon where below normal rainfall is more likely.

 
Prepared by:
CAD - CLIMPS
For inquiries, please contact
Ms. Ana Liza Solis
Chief, Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)
(02)8284-0800 Loc. 906