Sub Seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Forecast
  • This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;

  • This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html

  • This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).

Probabilistic Forecast Map

The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast

Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.

Objectives:

  • Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.

  • Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.

  • Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.



Initial Condition: July 21, 2024
Week Validity: Jul 19-25, 2024


Rainfall deficit of more than 100mm in most parts of Luzon (except Isabela, Quirino, Kalinga, Mt. Province, Ifugao, Nueva Viscaya, Mindoro, and Quezon) while 20-100mm increase of rainfall will be likely in Palawan and most parts of Visayas and Mindanao.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

High to very high over Luzon except Palawan;
Moderate to high over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 50mm

High to very high over Luzon except for Palawan and Bicol Region;
Moderate to high over Bicol Region, Quezon, Antique and western Iloilo;
Low over the rest of the country.



Probability to Exceed 100mm

High to very high over Ilocos Region, CAR, Central Luzon, NCR, Cavite, Batangas, and Laguna;
Moderate to high over Cagayan Valley, Mindoro Provinces, Rizal, Quezon;
Low to moderate over Albay and Antique;
Low over the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 150mm

High to very high over most parts of Ilocos Region, Abra, Benguet and Central Luzon;
Moderate to high over the rest of CAR, Aurora, NCR, Cavite, Batangas, Laguna, and Occidental Mindoro;
Low to moderate over the rest of Luzon;
Low over Visayas and Mindanao.

Probability to Exceed 200mm

Moderate to high over most parts of Ilocos Region, western section of CAR, most of Central Luzon, NCR, Cavite, Batangas and Occidental Mindoro;
Low to moderate over the rest of Luzon;
Low over Visayas and Mindanao.

Initial Condition: July 21, 2024
Week Validity: Jul 19-25, 2024


Near to cooler surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of Luzon, western Visayas and southern Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have near to warmer than average surface air temperature.

Initial Condition: July 21, 2024
Week Validity: Jul 19-25, 2024


Enhance Southwest Monsoon affecting most parts of the country during the forecast period

Initial Condition: July 21, 2024
Week Validity: Jul 26- Aug 01, 2024


Increase of rainfall of 40-100mm in most parts of Western and Central Luzon while 20-60mm Rainfall deficit is expected for the rest of the country.

Probability to Exceed 25mm

High to very high over most parts of Luzon;
Moderate to high over Bicol Region, Palawan, Western and Eastern Visayas, and most of Mindanao;
Low to moderate of Central Visayas.

Probability to Exceed 50mm

Moderate to high over most of Luzon and Central Mindanao;
Low to moderate over the rest of the country.



Probability to Exceed 100mm

Moderate to high over Ilocos Region, CAR, and most of Central Luzon
Low to moderate over the rest of Luzon;
Low over Visayas and Mindanao.

Probability to Exceed 150mm

Moderate to high over Ilocos Region, the western section of CAR, Zambales, Bataan, and Tarlac;
Low to moderate over the rest of Luzon;
Low over Visayas and Mindanao.

Probability to Exceed 200mm

Moderate to high over Ilocos Region;
Low to moderate over the rest of Luzon;
Low over Visayas and Mindanao.

Initial Condition: July 21, 2024
Week Validity: Jul 26- Aug 01, 2024


Near to cooler surface air temperature will likely be experienced in most parts of the country except in Aurora, Maguindanao and Sultan Kudarat where near to slightly warmer than average temperature is expected.

Initial Condition: July 21, 2024
Week Validity: Jul 26- Aug 01, 2024


Southwest Monsoon affecting most parts of the country.



CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: July 18, 2024
Week Validity: Jul 19-25., 2024

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in central and southern Luzon where below normal rainfall is more likely.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in western Mindanao where below normal rainfall is more likely.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Misamis Oriental and western Mindanao where below normal rainfall is more likely.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: July 18, 2024
Week Validity: Jul 26- Aug 01, 2024

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in southwestern Mindanao where below normal rainfall is more likely.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in Eastern Visayas and some areas in northern and southern Mindanao where above normal rainfall is more likely.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in northern and southern Mindanao where above normal rainfall is more likely.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: July 18, 2024
Week Validity: Aug 2-15, 2024

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in southwestern Mindanao where below normal rainfall is more likely.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of northern Luzon, the western part of Central Luzon, western Visayas, and some areas in western Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in western and central Luzon, Bicol Region, western parts of Visayas and Mindanao where below normal rainfall is more likely.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: July 18, 2024
Week Validity: Jul 19-27, 2024

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in western Luzon where below normal rainfall is more likely.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Visayas, Misamis Oriental, and Bukidnon while the rest of Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon and Visayas while Mindanao will likely have below normal rainfall.

For Particulars, please contact:

MS. ANA LIZA S. SOLIS


Chief, Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)

Climatology and Agrometeorology Division (CAD), DOST-PAGASA

Trunkline No.: (02)8284-0800 local 4920 and 4921

E-mail: asolis@pagasa.dost.gov.ph