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This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;
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This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html
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This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).
Probabilistic Forecast Map
The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast
Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.
Objectives:
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Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.
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Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.
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Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.
Initial Condition: May 25, 2023
Week Validity: May 26-Jun 01, 2023
Rainfall deficit of more than 100mm is expected in most parts of Kalinga, Mt. Province and Ifugao; 20-80mm in Isabela, Nueva Viscaya and northern Mindanao including Zamboanga Peninsula while up to 100mm increase of rainfall in Mindoro; 20-60mm in Ilocos Norte, Apayao, Cagayan, most parts of central and southern Luzon and western Visayas.
High to a very high probability to exceed 25mm of rainfall in Visayas and over most parts of Luzon and Mindanao, especially in the western side.
High to a very high probability to exceed 50mm of rainfall in the western section of the country, southern portion of the Bicol region, and western portion of Samar and Leyte while low to moderate over the rest of the country.
Moderate to high probability to exceed 100mm of rainfall over the western section of Luzon and Western Visayas while low to moderate likelihood over the rest of the country.
Moderate to high probability to exceed 150mm of rainfall over Occidental Mindoro and Antique while low to moderate likelihood over the rest of the country.
Low probability of rainfall to exceed 200mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.
Initial Condition: May 25, 2023
Week Validity: May 26-Jun 01, 2023
Average to cooler surface air temperature will likely experience in most parts of the country except Samar provinces, Misamis Oriental, CARAGA Region and Maguindanao where slightly warmer to warmer than average temperature will likely have during the forecast period.
Initial Condition: May 25, 2023
Week Validity: May 26-Jun 01, 2023
Southwest Monsoon is forecasted to prevail in most parts of the country. Moreover, a Cyclonic Circulation is forecasted to move closer to Northern Luzon
Initial Condition: May 25, 2023
Week Validity: June 02-08, 2023
Rainfall increase of more than 100mm is expected in most parts of central and southern Luzon and Panay Island; 20-80mm for the rest of Luzon and Visayas while rainfall deficit of 20-80mm is more likely in Mindanao.
High to a very high probability to exceed 25mm of rainfall over Luzon, most parts of Western and Eastern Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, BARMM, and Bukidnon while low to moderate probability for the rest of Visayas and Mindanao
High to very probability to exceed 50mm of rainfall in Luzon, Western Visayas, Negros Oriental, and the northern parts of Leyte and Samar Provinces while low to moderate probability over the rest of Visayas and Mindanao.
High to very high probability to exceed 100mm of rainfall over Central Luzon, NCR, CALABARZON, most parts of MIMAROPA, southern portions of the Bicol Region, and western portions of Panay Island while low to moderate likelihood over the rest of the country.
Moderate to high probability to exceed 150mm of rainfall over Mindoro Provinces, the southwestern portion of the Bicol Region, and the western sections of CALABARZON, NCR, Central Luzon, Northern Palawan, and Panay Island while low probability for the rest of the country.
Moderate to high probability to exceed 200mm of rainfall over Mindoro Provinces, the southwestern portion of the Bicol Region, and the western sections of CALABARZON, NCR, Central Luzon, Northern Palawan, and Panay Island while low probability for the rest of the country.
Initial Condition: May 25, 2023
Week Validity: June 02-08, 2023
Cooler than average surface air temperature will likely experience in Luzon, Panay Island and South Cotabato; Average to slightly warmer for the rest of Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Bukidnon and Davao del Sur while slightly warmer to warmer than average temperature is forecasted for the rest of Mindanao.
Initial Condition: May 25, 2023
Week Validity: June 02-08, 2023
Southwest monsoon is forecasted to prevail in most parts of the country.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: May 21, 2023
Week Validity: May 22-28, 2023
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in northern Luzon where below normal rainfall is more likely.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in eastern and southern Mindanao where above normal rainfall is more likely.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in southern Mindanao where above normal rainfall is more likely.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: May 21, 2023
Week Validity: May 29- June 04, 2023
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in northern Luzon where below normal rainfall is more likely.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of northern and central Luzon, western Visayas and most parts of Mindanao while the rest of the country will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, some areas in western Visayas and most parts of Mindanao while Mindoro, Bicol region, rest of Visayas and some areas in eastern and northern Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: May 21, 2023
Week Validity: Jun 5-18, 2023
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Visayas and CARAGA Region while the rest of Mindanao will likely have above normal rainfall.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except with some patches of below normal rainfall in the eastern part.
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in some areas in northern Luzon where below normal rainfall is more likely.
CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)
CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.
NOAA's CPC International Desks
The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.
Initial Condition: May 21, 2023
Week Validity: May 22-30, 2023
GCM
PCA
CCA
Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country except in northern Luzon where below normal rainfall is more likely.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country.
Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country.
Prepared by:
CAD - CLIMPS
For inquiries, please contact
Ms. Ana Liza Solis
Chief, Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)
(02)8284-0800 Loc. 906