Tropical Storm "Kristine"
Issued at 08:00 am, 23 October 2024
(Valid for broadcast until the next advisory to be issued at 11:00 AM today)
“KRISTINE” MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH WHILE MOVING WEST NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SEA EAST OF QUEZON
- HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
- Heavy Rainfall Outlook
- Refer to Weather Advisory No. 11 issued at 8:00 AM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to “KRISTINE”.
- Severe Winds
- The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
- Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the localities where Wind Signal No. 2 is hoisted.
- Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
- The highest Wind Signal which may be hoisted during the occurrence of KRISTINE is Wind Signal No. 3.
- Furthermore, the wind flow coming towards the circulation of KRISTINE and the Northeasterly Windflow will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):
- Today (23 October): MIMAROPA, Visayas, and Mindanao.
- Tomorrow (24 October): MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Basilan, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, Zamboanga del Norte, Lanao del Sur, Northern Mindanao, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Davao del Sur, and Davao Oriental.
- Friday (25 October): MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Western Visayas, Negros Occidental, Zamboanga del Norte, Basilan, Sulu, and Tawi-Tawi.
- Coastal Inundation
- There is a moderate to significant risk of life-threatening storm surge in the next 48 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Cagayan, Isabela, Zambales, Aurora, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes. For more information, refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 5 issued at 8:00 AM today.
- HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
- A Gale Warning is hoisted over the seaboards of Luzon and Visayas. For more information, refer to Gale Warning No. 5 issued at 5:00 AM today.
- 24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
- Up to high seas over the following coastal waters:
- Up to 8.0 m: The seaboards of Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, and Ilocos Sur.
- Up to 7.0 m: The seaboards of La Union, Pangasinan, Isabela, northern Aurora, Camarines Norte, Catanduanes, and the northern and eastern seaboards of Camarines Sur.
- Up to 6.0 m: The remaining seaboard of Aurora, the seaboards of Quezon including Polillo Islands, and the seaboards of Northern Samar.
- Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.
- Up to very rough seas over the following coastal waters:
- Up to 5.0 m: The seaboards of Bataan, Batangas, Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Islands, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, Calamian Islands, Cuyo Islands, Cagayancillo Islands, Zamboanga del Norte, Camiguin, Dinagat Islands, and the remaining seaboards of Bicol Region and Visayas.
- Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.
- Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters:
- Up to 4.0 m: The seaboards of Northern Mindanao, Surigao del Norte including Siargao and Bucas Grande Island Group, and Davao Oriental.
- Up to 3.0 m: Surigao del Sur and the remaining seaboards of Luzon.
- Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
- Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:
- Up to 2.5 m: The remaining seaboards of Mindanao.
- Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
- TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
- KRISTINE is forecast to move generally northwestward for the next 12 hours before turning generally westward for the rest of the forecast period. It is forecast to make landfall over Isabela or northern Aurora tonight or tomorrow (24 October) early morning. It will then cross the mountainous terrain of Northern Luzon and emerge over the waters west of Ilocos Region tomorrow afternoon. KRISTINE may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) region on Friday (25 October).
- KRISTINE is forecast to gradually intensify into a severe tropical storm before making landfall. Slight weakening will occur while crossing Northern Luzon. Re-intensification may occur over the West Philippine Sea.
Location of Eye/center
The center was estimated based on all available data at 310 km East of Baler, Aurora (15.4 °N, 124.5 °E )
Movement
Moving West Northwestward 15 km/h
Strength
Maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 105 km/h
Forecast Position
- Oct 23, 2024 05:00 PM - 150 km East of Echague, Isabela
- Oct 24, 2024 05:00 AM - In the vicinity of Bauko, Mountain Province
- Oct 24, 2024 05:00 PM - Over the coastal waters of Bolinao, Pangasinan
- Oct 25, 2024 05:00 AM - 245 km West of Bacnotan, La Union
- Oct 25, 2024 05:00 PM - 440 km West of Bacnotan, La Union
- Oct 26, 2024 05:00 AM - 695 km West of Bacnotan, La Union (OUTSIDE PAR)
- Oct 27, 2024 05:00 AM - 1,010 km West of Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR)
- Oct 28, 2024 05:00 AM - 1,160 km West of Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR)
Wind Signal
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Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.