Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #10

Tropical Storm "Kristine"

Issued at 08:00 am, 23 October 2024
(Valid for broadcast until the next advisory to be issued at 11:00 AM today)

“KRISTINE” MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH WHILE MOVING WEST NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SEA EAST OF QUEZON
  • HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
  • Heavy Rainfall Outlook
  • Refer to Weather Advisory No. 11 issued at 8:00 AM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to “KRISTINE”.
  • Severe Winds
  • The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
  • Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the localities where Wind Signal No. 2 is hoisted.
  • Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
  •  
  • The highest Wind Signal which may be hoisted during the occurrence of KRISTINE is Wind Signal No. 3.
  • Furthermore, the wind flow coming towards the circulation of KRISTINE and the Northeasterly Windflow will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):
  • Today (23 October): MIMAROPA, Visayas, and Mindanao.
  • Tomorrow (24 October): MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Basilan, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, Zamboanga del Norte, Lanao del Sur, Northern Mindanao, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Davao del Sur, and Davao Oriental.
  • Friday (25 October): MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Western Visayas, Negros Occidental, Zamboanga del Norte, Basilan, Sulu, and Tawi-Tawi.
  • Coastal Inundation
  •  
  • There is a moderate to significant risk of life-threatening storm surge in the next 48 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Cagayan, Isabela, Zambales, Aurora, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes. For more information, refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 5 issued at 8:00 AM today.
  • HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
  • A Gale Warning is hoisted over the seaboards of Luzon and Visayas. For more information, refer to Gale Warning No. 5 issued at 5:00 AM today.
  • 24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
  • Up to high seas over the following coastal waters:
  • Up to 8.0 m: The seaboards of Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, and Ilocos Sur.
  • Up to 7.0 m: The seaboards of La Union, Pangasinan, Isabela, northern Aurora, Camarines Norte, Catanduanes, and the northern and eastern seaboards of Camarines Sur.
  • Up to 6.0 m: The remaining seaboard of Aurora, the seaboards of Quezon including Polillo Islands, and the seaboards of Northern Samar.
  • Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.
  • Up to very rough seas over the following coastal waters:
  • Up to 5.0 m: The seaboards of Bataan, Batangas, Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Islands, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, Calamian Islands, Cuyo Islands, Cagayancillo Islands, Zamboanga del Norte, Camiguin, Dinagat Islands, and the remaining seaboards of Bicol Region and Visayas.
  • Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.
  • Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters:
  • Up to 4.0 m: The seaboards of Northern Mindanao, Surigao del Norte including Siargao and Bucas Grande Island Group, and Davao Oriental.
  • Up to 3.0 m: Surigao del Sur and the remaining seaboards of Luzon.
  • Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
  • Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:
  • Up to 2.5 m: The remaining seaboards of Mindanao.
  • Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
  • TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
  • KRISTINE is forecast to move generally northwestward for the next 12 hours before turning generally westward for the rest of the forecast period. It is forecast to make landfall over Isabela or northern Aurora tonight or tomorrow (24 October) early morning. It will then cross the mountainous terrain of Northern Luzon and emerge over the waters west of Ilocos Region tomorrow afternoon. KRISTINE may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) region on Friday (25 October).
  • KRISTINE is forecast to gradually intensify into a severe tropical storm before making landfall. Slight weakening will occur while crossing Northern Luzon. Re-intensification may occur over the West Philippine Sea.
Location of Eye/center

The center was estimated based on all available data at 310 km East of Baler, Aurora (15.4 °N, 124.5 °E )

Movement

Moving West Northwestward 15 km/h

Strength

Maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 105 km/h

Forecast Position
  • Oct 23, 2024 05:00 PM - 150 km East of Echague, Isabela
  • Oct 24, 2024 05:00 AM - In the vicinity of Bauko, Mountain Province
  • Oct 24, 2024 05:00 PM - Over the coastal waters of Bolinao, Pangasinan
  • Oct 25, 2024 05:00 AM - 245 km West of Bacnotan, La Union
  • Oct 25, 2024 05:00 PM - 440 km West of Bacnotan, La Union
  • Oct 26, 2024 05:00 AM - 695 km West of Bacnotan, La Union (OUTSIDE PAR)
  • Oct 27, 2024 05:00 AM - 1,010 km West of Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR)
  • Oct 28, 2024 05:00 AM - 1,160 km West of Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR)
Wind Signal (Areas with TCWS)
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no.
Affected Areas
  • Luzon
    • Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Apayao, Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, mainland Cagayan, Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Tarlac, Pampanga, Zambales, the northern and eastern portions of Quezon (Infanta, General Nakar, Real, Mauban, Perez, Alabat, Quezon, Calauag, Tagkawayan, Guinayangan) including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay, and the northeastern portion of Sorsogon (Prieto Diaz, City of Sorsogon)
Meteorological Condition
  • A tropical cyclone will affect the the locality.
  • Winds of greater than 62 km/h and up to 88 km/h may be expected in at least 24 hours.
Impact of the Wind
  • Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures.
  • Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures.
  • No damage to very light damage to low risk structures.
  • Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed.
  • A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed.
  • Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off.
  • Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed.
  • Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards.
  • In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken.
  • Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken.
  • Rice and corn may be adversely affected.
  • Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down.
Precautionary Measures
  • The sea and coastal waters are dangerous to small seacrafts
  • Special attention should be given to the latest position, the direction and speed of movement and the intensity of the storm as it may intensify and move towards the locality.
  • The general public especially people travelling by sea and air are cautioned to avoid unnecessary risks.
  • Outdoor activities of children should be postponed.
  • Secure properties before the signal is upgraded.
  • Disaster preparedness agencies / organizations are in action to alert their communities.
What To Do
  • Prepare flashlights, batteries , matches, kerosene lamps, or candles and charcoal in anticipation of power failure, first aid kit and store ready to eat foods.
  • Keep your cell phones fully charged.
  • Elevate household things in case of flooding.
  • For fishing folks, secure fishing boats in safe area.
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no.
Affected Areas
  • Luzon
    • Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Bataan, Metro Manila, Rizal, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, the rest of Quezon, Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Islands, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, Calamian Islands, the rest of Sorsogon, and Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands
  • Visayas
    • Aklan, Capiz, Antique including Caluya Islands, Iloilo, Guimaras, the northern portion of Negros Occidental (Pontevedra, La Castellana, Moises Padilla, Bago City, La Carlota City, Valladolid, Pulupandan, Bacolod City, San Enrique, Murcia, Silay City, City of Talisay, Enrique B. Magalona, Manapla, City of Victorias, Cadiz City, Sagay City, City of Escalante, Toboso, Calatrava, Salvador Benedicto, San Carlos City), the northern portion of Negros Oriental (Vallehermoso, Canlaon City, City of Guihulngan), the northern and central portions of Cebu (Alcantara, Argao, Dumanjug, Sibonga, Pinamungahan, Ronda, Liloan, Cebu City, Moalboal, Consolacion, Danao City, Borbon, Carmen, Daanbantayan, Tuburan, City of Bogo, Tabogon, City of Naga, Lapu-Lapu City, City of Carcar, Mandaue City, Catmon, Minglanilla, Toledo City, Cordova, Compostela, San Remigio, Balamban, Aloguinsan, San Fernando, Asturias, Barili, Medellin, Sogod, Tabuelan, City of Talisay) including Bantayan Islands and Camotes Islands, Bohol, the rest of Eastern Samar, the rest of Northern Samar, Samar, Leyte, Biliran, and Southern Leyte
  • Mindanao
    • Dinagat Islands and Surigao del Norte including Siargao - Bucas Grande Group
Meteorological Condition
  • A tropical cyclone will affect the locality.
  • Winds of 39-61 km/h may be expected in at least 36 hours or intermittent rains may be expected within 36 hours. (When the tropical cyclone develops very close to the locality a shorter lead time of the occurrence of the winds will be specified in the warning bulletin.)
Impact of the Wind
  • Very light or no damage to low risk structures.
  • Light damage to medium to high risk structures.
  • Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged.
  • Twigs of small trees may be broken.
  • Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Precautionary Measures
  • When the tropical cyclone is strong or is intensifying and is moving closer, this signal may be upgraded to the next higher level.
  • The waves on coastal waters may gradually develop and become bigger and higher.
  • The people are advised to listen to the latest severe weather bulletin issued by PAGASA every six hours. In the meantime, business may be carried out as usual except when flood occur.
  • Disaster preparedness is activated to alert status.
What To Do
  • Inspect your house if necessary repair/fixing is needed.
  • Clean up drainage system.
  • Harvest crops tha can be yielded.
  • Monitor the latest Severe Weather Bulletin issued By PAGASA every six hours and hourly updates.
    Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.

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